Ukraine's foreign intelligence says Russia weighs direct conflict with Poland by 2045

Hybrid war now, direct conflict as a scenario

Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service (SZRU) published a report on Tuesday, 13 October 2026, assessing that Russia is developing scenarios for direct armed confrontation with Poland, the Baltic states and Northern Europe. According to the agency, hybrid warfare remains the Kremlin's main tool for now, but Moscow treats direct confrontation with Europe as one realistic variant up to 2045. The scenarios are reportedly being worked out with public sentiment in Russia taken into account. The report says Moscow is focused above all on sabotage and hybrid operations, although a conventional conflict with Poland is still considered, particularly over the coming two decades.

Nearly 400 agents and a crisis on the eastern flank

According to SZRU, almost 400 Russian special services officers are currently in Europe, tasked with sabotage, cyberattacks and espionage. The agency says these officers systematically probe the limits of what NATO will tolerate, staying below the threshold that would trigger a military response. The agency also says Russia may seek a regional crisis on NATO's eastern flank. The aim would not be to defeat the alliance militarily but to show its alleged inability to respond quickly and to defend its members collectively. Ukraine's intelligence presents this as a way to undermine the credibility of the alliance rather than to fight it head on.

Russia's view of Europe and Russian opinion

SZRU cites European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) data showing that Russians name the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Poland, Finland and the Baltic states as main unfriendly countries. The agency also cites a survey in which 61% of Russian respondents think the time for negotiations has come. In the same survey, 59% say aggression should be intensified if the talks fail.

Germany and Estonia issue warnings

Germany's Federal Intelligence Service (BND) chief Martin Jaeger told a public hearing in the Bundestag that Germany could be drawn into direct armed confrontation with Russia. As an example he cited an attempted drone attack near Leipzig/Halle airport, which German law enforcement links to a wider campaign of sabotage, cyberattacks and other hybrid operations attributed to Russia. Estonian military commanders and intelligence officials do not currently expect Russia to start a full-scale war against NATO within the next two years. They do fear a limited operation, such as an attempt to seize part of Estonian territory to test NATO's readiness to apply Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Estonian authorities say the situation could become much harder after the war in Ukraine ends, when Russia could redirect tens of thousands of experienced soldiers westward while its defence industry keeps producing weapons.

Deterrence and the long view

Ukraine's intelligence stresses that Russia is preparing for a prolonged confrontation with the West. In its assessment, protecting Europe's eastern border and supporting Ukraine are core elements of a strategy to deter the common enemy. The report keeps sabotage and hybrid operations at the centre of current Russian activity, while treating a direct conflict as a longer-term possibility rather than an immediate one.