Planned November exercises

The Times reported on Saturday, 17 October, that at least 1500 soldiers from the United Kingdom, France and Germany will travel to Poland in November for special training. The drills are meant to prepare a European contingent for a possible deployment to Ukraine, should a ceasefire be agreed in Ukraine's war with Russia. According to The Times, British representatives have confirmed the exercise.

The troops will practise delivering fuel, food and other essential supplies. Logistical coordination between allied forces will get particular attention, since it would be central to any deployment on Ukrainian territory. The exercise is also intended to deter a possible spread of Russian aggression beyond Ukraine's borders.

Commander's view on deterrence

NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe, General Alexus Grynkewich, told Der Spiegel on Friday, 16 October, that Russia will not launch a large-scale conventional attack on Europe. He argued that deterrence has to be sustained through modernised forces and frequent training.

“We must maintain this deterrence, we must modernise our armies, train a lot and prove our capabilities.”

In a conventional war involving the whole alliance, he said NATO is stronger than Russia.

“Moscow does not have modern F-35 fighters, nor the number of modern destroyers and submarines that the alliance's states have.”

At the Warsaw Security Forum, in the week of 12 October, he presented what he called a 'theory of victory'. In the first phase, NATO ground forces would dominate the attack at the point of contact, tie down the attacker's formations through manoeuvre and prevent it from seizing alliance territory.

Warnings from Warsaw

Prime Minister Donald Tusk said at a briefing after the European Council summit in Brussels on Friday, 16 October, that Poland could see some escalation from Russia before Christmas. He said Russia will test Poland's reaction and that the border and rail infrastructure on the Ukrainian side could serve transport of gas, oil and food.

“Winter will be very difficult, above all when it comes to the borders and railway tracks.”

Tusk was asked about remarks by former National Security Bureau head Jacek Siewiera, who told Radio Zet that Russia's hybrid war against Europe could reach a 'fundamental chord' this winter. Tusk said he does not rely on forecasts or intuitions, but on intelligence from Polish, Ukrainian and allied services. He expects Poland to face the same kind of sabotage attempts and provocations as before, but on a larger scale.