Macro · Bucharest

Romania's GDP rose 2.1% in Q3 2026 but stays negative for nine months

Statistics agency INS estimates third-quarter 2026 GDP rose 2.1% on the quarter, while September industrial output fell 6.1% year on year.

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In brief

Bucharest · Romania

GDP rebounds in the third quarter

The National Institute of Statistics (INS) published its flash estimate on Friday, 13 November, showing gross domestic product rose 2.1% in the third quarter of 2026 against the previous quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis. Compared with the third quarter of 2025, GDP grew 0.1% on the gross series and 0.3% on the seasonally adjusted series. The rebound did not make up for the weak start to the year. Over the first nine months of 2026, output fell 0.3% on the gross series and 1.0% on the adjusted series against the same period of 2025. The quarterly jump follows a second quarter that stagnated, so the numbers point to a change of direction rather than a full recovery.

Romania GDP growth in Q3 2026 by comparison basis%

Data from the article text

Revisions reshape the downturn

Adding the third-quarter estimate led INS to recalculate the seasonally adjusted series and revise earlier results. The contraction in the first quarter of 2026 moved from 0.1% to 0.3% quarter on quarter, while the fall in the fourth quarter of 2025 was revised from 1.7% to 1.5%. The second quarter result stayed unchanged at stagnation. The revisions make the late-2025 drop shallower but the slump longer, since the first quarter now sits lower. Using the published indices, HotNews.ro calculated a rise of roughly 2% against the second quarter, a figure it described as approximate because of index rounding.

Industrial output keeps falling

Industrial production rose 13.7% month on month in September 2026 on the gross series, driven by manufacturing, which climbed 18.9%. On the seasonally and working-day adjusted series, output fell 2.6% month on month, with energy down 4.9%, extractive industry down 4.2% and manufacturing down 1.8%. Against September 2025, gross output fell 6.1%, with manufacturing down 7.2% and energy and utilities down 3.4%. Extractive industry was the only sector to grow, up 5.2%, and adjusted output was 6.2% lower year on year. Manufacturing also drove the nine-month picture, where gross production fell 3.7% and the adjusted series dropped 3.9%.

Romania industrial production change, September 2026%

Data from the article text

Methodology and what comes next

The flash figures are signal estimates and carry no breakdown by branch or by demand component, so the drivers of the third-quarter rise remain unexplained. INS said in its statement how the series are recalculated.

“Seasonally adjusted series are recalculated quarterly in line with European practice.”

Institutul Național de Statistică

The first provisional third-quarter data, which will add detail on the economy, is due on 7 December. Over nine months the gross and adjusted series differ by 0.7 percentage points, and the gross series remains the reference for cumulative annual comparisons. The 2.1% quarterly rise and the 0.3% nine-month fall compare different periods, so they do not contradict each other.

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