What the figures show

Eurostat's quarterly release, published on Wednesday, 21 October 2026, puts Romania's seasonally adjusted government deficit at 9.2% of GDP for April to June 2026. That is 3.7 percentage points above the 5.5% recorded in the first quarter and 1.5 points above the 7.7% of the same quarter in 2025. Hungary ranked second at 7.2%, and Romania's figure sat 5.7 points above the EU average of 3.5%. Across the Union the deficit rose from 3.1% to 3.5% of GDP, while the euro area moved from 3.2% to 3.3%. At the other end of the table, Cyprus posted a surplus of 3.3% of GDP, ahead of Denmark at 2.7%, Greece at 2.2%, Ireland at 1.9% and Portugal at 0.8%.

Romania9.2

Hungary7.2

EU average3.5

Euro area3.3

Romania

9.2 % of GDP

Hungary

7.2 % of GDP

EU average

3.5 % of GDP

Euro area

3.3 % of GDP

Data from the article text

A volatile quarterly series

Romania's quarterly readings have swung widely. Eurostat's series shows 9.2% of GDP in the first quarter of 2025, 7.7% in the second, 7.1% in the third and 7.3% in the last three months of that year, before the first quarter of 2026 fell to 5.5%. That first-quarter figure had originally been published as 3.6% and was revised upward, and Eurostat describes its quarterly estimates as provisional and subject to revision. Speaking at a conference on Thursday, 22 October, Valentin Lazea, chief economist at the National Bank of Romania (BNR), said the ratio measures the deficit within one quarter against that quarter's GDP, not against annual output. He linked the first-quarter reading to a budget that had not been approved, with some spending postponed.

“It is an exercise Eurostat carries out quarterly for all countries, and there is very high volatility between quarters.”

Lazea said he was convinced the Ministry of Finance would explain the situation precisely, and that the third-quarter outcome remained to be seen.

Q1 2025

9.2 % of GDP

Q2 2025

7.7 % of GDP

Q3 2025

7.1 % of GDP

Q4 2025

7.3 % of GDP

Q1 2026

5.5 % of GDP

Q2 2026

9.2 % of GDP

Data from the article text

Quarterly and annual figures differ

The 9.2% figure is not the year's deficit. The Ministry of Finance publishes budget execution on a cash basis, recording actual receipts and payments, whereas Eurostat uses the ESA methodology, based on accrual accounting. On the ministry's cash measure, the deficit after the first six months of 2026 was 41.03 billion lei, or 2% of GDP, compared with 69.80 billion lei and 3.64% of GDP in the same period of 2025. The annual target is approximately 6% of GDP for the end of the year, and it refers to the whole budget year rather than to one quarter. Because the two indicators use different methods and reference periods, the second-quarter Eurostat figure does not automatically mean the annual target will be exceeded.

Political reaction

The Social Democratic Party (PSD) issued a press statement on Thursday, 22 October, attributing the figure to the government led by former prime minister Ilie Bolojan. PSD compared the 9.2% level with the 7.7% recorded in the second quarter of 2025 under Marcel Ciolacu's government. It also cited a 2% year-on-year fall in GDP, harmonized inflation of 6.5% in September 2026 and a 5.7% year-on-year drop in retail sales in July 2026, which it described as the EU's largest. The party argued that austerity and tax increases failed to bring the deficit down. In the statement, PSD said:

“The Eurostat report exposes the disproportionate failure of austerity! Romanians were tormented for nothing with tax and duty increases!”

Petrișor Peiu, leader of the AUR senators in the Senate, wrote on Facebook that the government had delayed payment of about 35 billion lei owed to suppliers and state institutions. He wrote:

“The Bolojan government did not reduce the budget deficit, it only 'forgot' to pay 35 billion lei!”

Peiu argued that Eurostat's ESA figures point to a deficit of nearly 8% of GDP by the end of 2026, similar to last year, and accused the PSD of complicity in what he called a lie.