Polish inflation eases to 3.5% in October, fuel prices down 9.7% on September

Inflation slows to 3.5%

Statistics Poland (GUS) confirmed that consumer prices in October 2026 were 3.5% higher than a year earlier and 0.4% lower than in September. The final reading matched the flash estimate the agency published at the end of October. Annual inflation had stood at 4.1% in September, which moves the October rate toward the lower edge of the National Bank of Poland's (NBP) target band of 2.5% plus or minus one percentage point. The return of the Ceny Paliwa Niżej (CPN) fuel price programme on 3 October helped drive the decline. The programme was not in force for exactly half of the third quarter, a period when fuel at times cost as much as 9 zloty per litre, according to RMF FM.

Fuel and food prices

Fuel prices fell 9.7% in October compared with September, and their annual rate dropped from 36.1% to 21.7%. Food and non-alcoholic beverages remained cheaper than a year earlier, but the annual decline narrowed to 0.3% in October, from 0.7% in September and 1.2% in August. Rzeczpospolita noted that the food deflation, the deepest in a decade, is now giving way. The food series below shows how the annual decline has shrunk over the three months.

2026-08

-1.2 %

2026-09

-0.7 %

2026-10

-0.3 %

Data from the article text

Monthly price moves

Transport prices weighed most on the monthly index, falling 6.1% against September, while recreation, sport and culture dropped 2.6%. Clothing and footwear rose 2.9% over the month. Housing, covering water, electricity, gas and other fuels, rose 1.0%. Information and communication services gained 0.7%, and food and non-alcoholic beverages rose 0.4%. The chart below compares these categories side by side.

Transport-6.1%

Recreation, sport and culture-2.6%

Housing, water, energy and fuels1%

Clothing and footwear2.9%

Information and communication services0.7%

Food and non-alcoholic beverages0.4%

Transport

-6.1 %

Recreation, sport and culture

-2.6 %

Housing, water, energy and fuels

1 %

Clothing and footwear

2.9 %

Information and communication services

0.7 %

Food and non-alcoholic beverages

0.4 %

Data from the article text

Growth slows as households cut back

GUS also reported that economic growth slowed to 3.5% in the third quarter, down from 4%. Dr Jacek Kotłowski, head of the Analysis and Economic Research Department at the NBP, linked the slowdown to consumer behaviour. He said that higher inflation had in some way limited spending. He put the change in behaviour directly:

“It is clearly visible that they are spending their money more cautiously.”

An RMF FM reporter said high fuel bills drained household budgets, leading people to save more. The third-quarter figures cover the period from the start of July to the end of September.

Core inflation and what comes next

Economists noticed an unexpected drop in core inflation, which excludes fuel, energy and food. It is probably below 3% year on year, which would be the lowest reading since March. The headline October figures were published on 13 November. The NBP will publish the core figures on Monday, 16 November.