CIS poll gives PSOE first place with 33.3% and rules out a PP-Vox majority

National projection

The Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas (CIS) pre-election macro-survey, published on 12 November, gives the PSOE first place in the general election set for 29 November. The socialists are estimated at 33.3% of the vote and between 134 and 143 seats in Congress. The PP is projected at 25.5%, eight points below its 2023 result, with 98 to 106 seats. Vox would rise to 18.4% and win between 57 and 65 seats. Even at their best forecast, the PP and Vox together would not reach the 176 seats needed for an absolute majority.

The survey rests on 45,074 telephone interviews. The CIS warns that seat ranges cannot be added across provinces to reach regional or national totals, and it describes the national figure as a percentile range.

“At national level, the percentile range is estimated, which delimits the most probable core of the joint seat distribution.”

PSOE33.3%

PP25.5%

Vox18.4%

PSOE

33.3 %

PP

25.5 %

Vox

18.4 %

Data from the article text

Left bloc and the path to government

Taken at their highest brackets, the PSOE and the other left-wing parties together would far exceed 176 seats. The list includes Frente Amplio, ERC, EH Bildu, Compromís-Front Valencià, Adelante Andalucía, Podemos, BNG, Ara Més-Front Ampli and Unidad del Pueblo Canario. On those figures Pedro Sánchez could govern with their support without needing the votes of Junts or the PNV. The survey places the PSOE first in every region except the Basque Country, where it contests first place with EH Bildu.

Regional picture

In the Valencian Community the PSPV-PSOE is estimated at 10 to 13 seats, the PP at 7 to 11, Vox at 6 to 8 and Compromís-Front Valencià at 4 to 7. In the 2023 general election the PP took 34.9% and 13 seats in the region, the PSPV 32.1% and 11 seats, Vox 15.7% and five seats, and Compromís-Sumar 15.2% and four seats. The CIS projects the PSPV to lead in Valencia province and Alicante and to tie in Castellón.

In Castilla y León the socialists are estimated at 12 to 18 of the 31 seats, the PP at 10 to 15 and Vox at one to eight. In the 2023 general election the PP won 18 seats there, the PSOE 12 and Vox one. In direct vote intention, the PSOE stands at 34.6%, the PP at 23.1% and Vox at 14.7%, based on 4,550 interviews in the region. Santiago Abascal leads Vox.

PSOE34.6%

PP23.1%

Vox14.7%

PSOE

34.6 %

PP

23.1 %

Vox

14.7 %

Data from the article text

In Castilla-La Mancha the PSOE is projected to win 8 to 9 of 21 seats, the PP 5 to 7 and Vox 5 to 6. Vox would hold seats in all five provinces for the first time. In Toledo, which has six seats, the PSOE is projected at two to three, while the PP and Vox each receive one to two, and the outcome there is less clear.

Fieldwork and context

Fieldwork ran from 7 to 30 October across 4,190 municipalities in 50 provinces, plus the autonomous cities of Ceuta and Melilla. The rail accident in Urda, in the province of Toledo, happened during fieldwork, and the survey captured only its echoes. Transport minister Óscar Puente had not yet resigned when fieldwork was carried out. The survey also reflects public sentiment on the housing crisis that prompted the early election.