Five polls after the Urda crash keep PP and Vox above a majority as PSOE closes on PP

Polls taken after the Urda crash

Five polls published on 8 and 9 November point to the same broad picture: the right-wing bloc keeps a comfortable lead, even though the train collision at Urda on the Madrid to Seville high-speed line killed 69 people. According to 40dB, it was the second fatal rail accident in less than a year. Transport minister Óscar Puente resigned in the days that followed. The 40dB survey, carried out for EL PAÍS and SER from 2 to 4 November with 2,000 online interviews, gives the PP, Vox and UPN together more than 190 seats, over 15 above the absolute majority. The gap between the PP and the PSOE has narrowed to two points, which falls within the poll's margin of error.

Seat projections across pollsters

40dB puts the PP at 31.9% and 129 seats, eight fewer than it holds now, while Vox would rise from 33 to 61 seats and gain 5.6 points on 2023. In 40dB's data the PSOE gained 1.8 points since late October, while Vox lost almost a point. La Razón, with fieldwork from 2 to 5 November, gives the PP 32.6% and 136 to 138 seats, the PSOE 25.6% and 99 to 101 seats, and Vox 19.3% and 67 to 69 seats. GAD3 for ABC, with fieldwork from 3 to 5 November, projects 199 seats for the PP and Vox combined, with the PSOE down from 107 to 103 seats. Sigma Dos for El Mundo, based on 4,172 interviews conducted between 30 October and 6 November, puts the PP at 31% and Vox at 19.4%, with a most likely PSOE result of 105 seats within a range of 101 to 106. Sigma Dos also estimates that in its most likely scenario a Sánchez-led bloc of all 2023 investiture supporters would reach 148 seats, 28 short of the minimum needed to stay in government.

Voters moving within the right

IMOP's third wave for El Confidencial, with fieldwork from 2 to 6 November, shows PP loyalty among its 2023 voters rising to 65.4%, from 56.1% on 23 October. The net flow of votes from the PP to Vox fell by 624,000, from 1,748,000 to 1,124,000, a reduction of 35.7%. The share of 2023 PP voters who now back Vox dropped to 18.4% from 23.7%, although Vox still shows the largest growth compared with the 23-J election. The net balance of PSOE voters moving to the PP stayed in Feijóo's favour at 573,000 votes, against 587,000 in the previous wave. According to 40dB, PSOE voter retention rose from 68.4% to 74.6%, and the share of Sumar voters moving to the PSOE reached 21.6%, up from roughly 10%. Among centrist voters, 55% express concern or fear about Vox entering government, and defending social gains, including pensions, now mobilises voters about as strongly as fear of Vox.

Leaders and expectations

In GAD3's barometer Alberto Núñez Feijóo remains the best-rated leader, with an average score of 4.3 out of 10, three tenths higher than in October. He stays ahead of Pedro Sánchez on 3.4 and Santiago Abascal on 3.2, while Ada Colau scores 2.9, Irene Montero 2.6 and 'Alvise' Pérez 1.8. Feijóo's rating among PP voters rose from 6.6 to 7. Asked who will finish first on 29 November, 68% of respondents named the PP, 22% the PSOE and 3% Vox. Among PSOE voters, 46% expect their own party to come first.

Campaign ahead

Parties resumed campaigning this weekend after a pause that followed the crash. El Mundo reports that the official start of the campaign is due on Friday, 13 November, and that the PSOE enters it 26 seats behind the PP. Estimates of the PP lead over the PSOE vary widely, from roughly 35 to 39 seats in La Razón's projection to a most likely gap of about 26 seats in El Mundo's Sigma Dos survey. The next polls will show whether the PSOE's gains hold until the vote on 29 November.