Poland to see up to 15°C in mid-November, then a sharp cold snap and storms

Warm spell peaks on 13 November

Forecasts point to a short rise in temperatures in the middle of November, with the warmest day expected on Friday, 13 November. Warming starts on Thursday, 12 November, in Lower Silesia, where Jelenia Góra, Wałbrzych and the Kłodzko Valley could reach 12°C. On the Friday, the south and south-east should be warmest, and the ECMWF model cited by one forecast puts up to 15°C around Opole, Kędzierzyn-Koźle and Racibórz. Wrocław, Katowice, Gliwice, Kraków and Tarnów are expected at 13 to 14°C that day. Rzeczpospolita adds that Friday is also set to be unusually rainy nationwide, with the heaviest rain forecast for the north-west.

A sharp return to cold

The mild spell is expected to be short. Rzeczpospolita forecasts 7 to 9°C across almost the whole country on Saturday, 14 November, with only the north-east possibly reaching 11°C. The south-east should still be the mildest area that day, at about 11°C in Rzeszów, Przemyśl and Zamość, while the west cools to around 7°C in Szczecin, Poznań and Zielona Góra. On Sunday, 15 November, the drop spreads across the country, with 4 to 6°C forecast in Wrocław, Poznań and Warsaw. Zakopane is expected to reach only 1°C, and the Gdańsk area around 8°C. The nights are expected to stay bitter too, as the weekend is forecast to repeat the pattern of recent days.

Frost, fog and wind risk

Frost is the most persistent feature of the forecasts. Night temperatures from Friday to Saturday are expected at -4 to -1°C over most of the country, according to RMF, with about -6°C in the mountains. Forecasters warn of strong mist and fog that could cut visibility to around 200 metres, and rime could form in places. The national forecaster stresses the trend in its outlook for the coming week.

“Night-time temperature drops will also be an important feature of the weather.”

A further change is expected in the second half of the month. Citing the weather service twojapogoda.pl, Rzeczpospolita reports a reorganisation of atmospheric circulation over Europe, with the first significant autumn gale expected between 17 and 20 November. Gusts could exceed 70 km/h across the country and reach 80 to 90 km/h locally, while the coast and mountains could see 100 to 120 km/h.

What comes next

Polsat News writes that bigger changes are unlikely before the middle of next week, and that the weekend could look much like the current pattern. The storm window is given only as a range of days, so the exact timing could still shift as forecasts are updated. Readers should treat all figures as forecasts rather than measurements, since the temperatures and wind speeds quoted here were published before the days they describe.