Western Poland to reach 18-19°C on 16 October before colder air returns at the weekend

High pressure and polar maritime air

Poland lies under a high-pressure system that stretches from the Atlantic across central Europe to northern Russia, according to the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW). Lows over the Norwegian and North Seas, together with their fronts, affect the north and north-west of the continent. The air over Poland is polar maritime, slightly milder over the west of the country. Pressure in Warsaw at noon on 15 October is forecast at 1012 hPa, with a further rise expected afterwards.

15 October: cloud and showers in the east

Moderate to heavy cloud covers the eastern half of the country on 15 October, with light showers in places. The Tatras and the Bieszczady mountains may see rain mixed with snow, and snowfall is also possible there. Daytime highs range from 9-10°C in the east to around 15°C in the west, and about 8°C in the foothills of the Carpathians. The west should be brighter, with the sun breaking through more often. Winds are mostly weak to moderate from the west, turning gusty at times in Podkarpacie, while the north-east sees northerly winds. Early in the morning, local fog may cut visibility to 200 metres in the north-west.

Overnight fog and frost into 16 October

Cloud overnight into 16 October stays mostly small to moderate, with more cloud and possible light showers in the south-east. Fog is the main concern, as visibility in the east, south and centre may fall to 300 metres and locally to 100 metres. Minimum temperatures range from about 1°C in the south and east to 6°C in the west, with about 7°C over the sea. In the foothill areas of the Carpathians the temperature may locally drop to -4°C. Winds are weak, southerly in the west and mostly variable in the east.

Warm spell on 16 October

On 16 October high pressure takes hold and brings a clear warm-up, with mostly small to moderate cloud across most of the country. Weak, scattered showers are possible only in the south-east, where cloud is thicker. Highs are expected at about 9°C in the south-east, about 13°C in the centre and 18-19°C in the west, while the Bieszczady valleys reach around 8°C. Locally, values near 20°C are not ruled out. Morning fog may return in the east and centre, cutting visibility to 200 metres early in the day before conditions improve. Winds are mostly weak and blow chiefly from the south and south-east, with moderate breezes in the north.

Colder weekend from 17 October

From Saturday, 17 October, a colder air mass starts flowing back into the country. In the first half of the weekend the south-west may still reach about 17°C, but on Sunday, 18 October, highs top out at 15°C. Cloud builds again, with showers returning first in the west and then spreading to other parts of the country. The changes will not end with the weekend, according to the forecast. The week of 19 October may begin in a similar way, with local light rain.