Cold, damp week ahead in Poland, with frost in the east and a dry spell into the weekend
Forecasts point to cloudy, damp weather and cold nights, with frost possible east of the Vistula. Drought conditions are expected to persist, with most of the country getting only a few millimetres of rain until Sunday, 18 October.
Cool and cloudy days ahead
The coming days bring a cool, mostly cloudy spell after a dry first week of October. Forecasts for Tuesday, 13 October, describe high pressure over most of the country, with morning fog in the west and in mountain basins that may cut visibility to about 200 metres. Maximum temperatures are forecast at 10 C in the east and 14 C in the west, and 7 to 9 C in the Carpathian basins. A second report puts Tuesday's highs at 8 C in Podhale, 11 to 13 C inland, 14 C in the west and up to 15 C near the German border. On Wednesday, 14 October, cloud is expected to be large with breaks, the east is more exposed to passing showers, and rain in the Tatras may turn to snow in the evening. Highs on Wednesday are forecast at 8 C in the north-east, about 12 C in the centre and 15 C in the west and on the coast, with up to 16 C possible around Gdansk Bay, and gusts at sea could reach 60 km/h.
Frost on the cold nights
Overnight temperatures are where the forecasts differ most. One report gives minimums of 2 C in the south-east, 8 to 9 C in the west, 10 to 11 C on the coast and minus 3 to minus 1 C in the Carpathian basins for the night from Tuesday to Wednesday. Another report gives minus 2 C on the Carpathian foothills, where spots near the ground could drop to minus 5 C, 0 to 3 C in the south-east, 4 to 5 C in the centre and up to 10 C on the Szczecin Lowland. Forecast maps also show frost east of the Vistula line, including ground frost. The rain front expected in the west, Pomerania and Kuyavia is forecast to bring full cloud cover and light rain of a few millimetres.
Drought and a dry week
Poland has been under drought for a long time, and forecasts to Sunday, 18 October, point to very little rain. One report says that in some places not a single drop is expected by Sunday, and that most of the country should see only a few millimetres by the end of the week. The northern coast and the Zulawy lowlands are the exception, with an estimated 10 to 20 mm by Sunday and locally about 30 mm. From the week of 19 October, rainfall in most of the country is expected to return to typical levels for the season, but high pressure stays close by and no stronger or long-lasting rain is forecast. Forecasts to the end of October show no change, and early November may look similar.
- Forecast: high pressure over most of Poland, with cloud and weak rain in the east
- Forecast: showers in the east, Tatra rain turning to snow in the evening, highs of 8 C to 15 C
- Forecast: up to about 18 C in parts of the west on Friday and Saturday (16-17 October)
- Forecast total by Sunday: a few mm in most of the country, 10 to 20 mm on the northern coast
- IMGW ECMWF maps: average maximum temperatures of 9 to 11 C
Late October and early November
Long-range forecasts from IMGW point to a less pleasant second half of October, with the southern part of the country expected to be colder than usual in the final weeks. Maps based on ECMWF model output show average maximum temperatures of 9 to 11 C for the week of 26 October to 1 November, with the south at up to 11 C, the centre and west at around 10 C and the north-east at around 9 C. Average minimums are forecast between 1 C in the south and 7 C in the north, mostly 4 to 6 C. Rainfall in early November is expected to stay within the multi-year norm, with a slightly wetter southern edge, so Sunday, 1 November, may call for umbrellas in the south. Forecasters link the mild start of winter to El Nino, with December temperatures forecast above the norm across Poland. Friday and Saturday, 16 and 17 October, may reach about 18 C in parts of the west, but a return to 20 C is not expected.
