Poland's population falls by 90,000 in first half of 2026 as deaths outpace births
Statistics Poland (GUS) put the population at 37.243 million at the end of June 2026, with negative natural growth of 95.2 thousand driving the decline. Urban areas recorded a larger natural loss than the countryside.
A fall of 90,000 in six months
Poland's population stood at 37.243 million at the end of June 2026, Statistics Poland (GUS) reported on Thursday, 15 October 2026. Over the first half of the year the number of residents fell by 90,000 compared with the end of 2025, a real decline of 0.24%. Measured against the end of June 2025, when the population was 37.402 million, the country is 159,000 people smaller. GUS said the fall results from negative natural growth, while migration is the second factor shaping the total.
Deaths outnumber births
About 115,000 live births were registered in the first half of 2026, 1,000 fewer than a year earlier. Deaths rose to about 210,000, including 334 infants, an increase of roughly 2,000 on the first half of 2025. The natural increase, the gap between births and deaths, came out at -95.2 thousand.
- Live births
- 115 thousand
- Deaths
- 210 thousand
GUS translated this into a loss of 51 people per 10,000 inhabitants. Urban areas lost 62.0 thousand people through natural movement, against 33.2 thousand in rural areas.
- Cities
- -62 thousand
- Villages
- -33.2 thousand
This means that in the first half of 2026, as a result of natural movement, 51 people per 10,000 inhabitants of the country were lost.
GUS said natural decline has been recorded since 2013. Births rose in 2016 and 2017 but have stayed low, while the number of deaths keeps climbing as the share of older people grows.
Marriages, divorces and migration
More than 50,000 marriages were concluded in the first half of 2026, about 2,000 more than a year earlier. Around 38% were church weddings, which were then registered with the civil registry office. Divorces numbered about 32,000, roughly 1,000 more than in the same period of 2025, and a further 0.3 thousand couples were granted legal separation. Urban areas recorded 23,000 divorces, almost three times the rural figure. On migration, the PESEL register showed 9,926 immigrations against 4,319 emigrations.
Long-range projections
Mateusz Łakomy, author of a book on Poland's demographic trends, argued in an interview with Rzeczpospolita that a fall of 10 million is largely certain. He said the goal should be to keep the figure from sliding toward 15, 10 or 5 million, since such numbers appear in longer simulations. Eurostat's baseline scenario, described as the most likely, projects Poland at 25 million by 2100. According to the same projection, the population drops below 37 million in 2030 and reaches just under 33 million by 2050.