Poland's GDP growth slows to 3.5% y/y in Q3 2026, below expectations

Slowdown slightly below forecasts

Poland's gross domestic product rose 3.5% year on year in the third quarter of 2026, according to the flash estimate Statistics Poland (GUS) presented on Friday, 13 November. That is down from 4.1% in the second quarter and marginally below the 3.6% expected by economists polled by PAP Biznes. Quarter on quarter, output grew 0.8%, after a 1.1% rise in the previous quarter. The average forecast compiled for Rzeczpospolita and Parkiet also stood at 3.6%, so the result is only symbolically weaker than the market expected. Because this is a first reading, GUS may still revise it by several tenths of a percentage point.

Q2 2026 (final)4.1

Q3 2026 (flash)3.5

Q3 2026 consensus (PAP Biznes)3.6

Q3 2026 PKO BP forecast3.3

Q2 2026 (final)

4.1 % y/y

Q3 2026 (flash)

3.5 % y/y

Q3 2026 consensus (PAP Biznes)

3.6 % y/y

Q3 2026 PKO BP forecast

3.3 % y/y

Data from the article text

Economists read the slowdown as temporary

Economists at PKO BP attribute the slowdown mainly to a high base of comparison and a temporary loss of momentum, not to a lasting change in the trend. They described the monthly data as showing a broad weakening across construction, industry, trade and services. PKO BP itself had forecast 3.3% growth for the quarter, below the flash result. The bank also keeps its full-year 2026 forecast at 3.6-3.7%. In its commentary, the bank put its outlook for the coming months this way.

“In the fourth quarter we expect growth similar to that of the third quarter.”

Investment in focus

mBank economists wrote on X that the deeper slowdown could have been driven by investment, which they described as highly volatile, and that they could only speculate until the detailed data arrive. Daniel Piekarek, chief economist at Bank BPS, said the cooling of activity reduces the risk of demand pressure keeping inflation elevated. He stressed that judging the character of the slowdown, including the path of consumption and investment, requires the GDP breakdown. Piekarek's comment on the quarter was direct.

“The slowdown in the third quarter occurred despite continued investment support from KPO funds.”

Outlook and monetary policy

ING economists called Friday's GDP and inflation data a 'dovish' signal for the Monetary Policy Council (RPP), even though the hawkish tone of the November NBP projection had made the council's rhetoric tougher. ING still backs its scenario of 50 basis point rate hikes in the first quarter of 2027. The NBP's projection, published on 6 November, expects GDP growth of 3.6% in 2026. Economists' forecasts for the year cluster around 3.6-4%, close to the 3.8% recorded in 2025.

Revisions and what comes next

Second-quarter growth was first reported at 3.8% in the flash estimate, then revised to 3.9%, before final GUS data published in mid-October put it at 4.1%. GUS will publish the detailed structure of third-quarter GDP on 30 November, the first chance to revise the flash figure. Before the release, economists had expected private consumption to rise 3% and investment about 8% year on year, and the breakdown will test those expectations.