EU ageing report projects Greece's population falling to 7.6 million by 2080

A shrinking population

The European Commission's 2027 Ageing Report, published on 4 November, projects that Greece's population will fall from about 10.4 million in 2025 to 7.6 million by 2080, a drop of 26%. The decline is gradual rather than confined to the end of the century, with the population projected at 10.2 million in 2030, 9.7 million in 2040 and 9.2 million in 2050. The report also gives 8.9 million for 2055, and the figure keeps falling to 8.6 million in 2060 and to about 8 million in 2070. The projections assume that current policies remain unchanged, which makes them a conditional scenario rather than a certain outcome. The underlying demographic inputs draw on Eurostat's EUROPOP2025 population estimates.

2025

10.4 million

2030

10.2 million

2040

9.7 million

2050

9.2 million

2055

8.9 million

2060

8.6 million

2070

8 million

2080

7.6 million

Data from the article text

Ageing and fertility

The share of people aged 65 and over is projected to rise from 23.9% in 2025 to 34.6% in 2080, peaking at about 34.9% around 2050 before easing slightly. The 80-and-over group grows faster in relative terms, moving from 7.2% to 14.9% of the population. Fertility is expected to edge up from 1.20 children per woman in 2025 to 1.45 in 2080, yet it stays well below the replacement level of roughly 2.1. Coverage of the report cites a 2024 rate of 1.24, which places the 2025 estimate in context. Life expectancy at birth is forecast to rise from 84.5 to 90.1 years for women and from 79.5 to 86.4 years for men. Earlier figures in the coverage show fertility at 2.23 in 1960 and 1.25 in 2000, a collapse that the same coverage links to the change in the socioeconomic model and to economic crises.

2025

23.9 %

2030

25.9 %

2040

31.1 %

2050

34.9 %

2060

34.7 %

2070

34 %

2080

34.6 %

Data from the article text

Working-age population and retirement

The 20-64 age group, which the report treats as working age, is projected to shrink from 58% of the population in 2025 to 50% by 2080. In absolute terms, the number of people in that group falls from 4.649 million in 2025 to 3.073 million in 2080. Labour market participation among them is forecast to rise from 77.3% to 80.5%, but the report says that increase does not offset the smaller cohort. The average age of exit from the labour market is projected to climb from 64.9 years in 2026 to 68.6 years in 2080, which the report links to pension reforms. For Greece, the projections take into account the legislated link between the retirement age and life expectancy. Greek coverage gives 70 years by 2055 as the upper exit limit, while one headline cites 72.

20254.649

20803.073

2025

4.649 million

2080

3.073 million

Data from the article text

EU-wide trends

The EU population is projected to edge up from 452 million in 2025 to 453 million in 2029, then decline to 414 million by 2080, an 8% fall from 2025. Ten member states are projected to have larger populations in 2080 than they do today. The share of people aged 65 and over across the EU is expected to rise from 22% to 33% by 2080, while the 80-and-over share is set to more than double, from 6% to 14%. The EU median age is forecast to climb from 45 to 51 years. The old-age dependency ratio, the number of people aged 65 and over per 20-64 year old, is projected to rise by 27 percentage points, from 38% in 2025 to 65% in 2080. Bulgaria, Lithuania and Poland are cited as the only member states expected to see declines larger than or comparable to Greece's.