Brent falls below $90 as Trump says further Iran strikes are unnecessary

Brent slips below $90

Brent crude briefly traded under $90 a barrel on Tuesday, 10 November, extending a selloff that began on Monday, 9 November, when the benchmark lost almost 6%. During Tuesday's session it fell as much as 3.7%. Early trading put West Texas Intermediate near $85 a barrel. The January Brent contract later settled at $91.49, down 1.20% from Monday's close of $92.57. Brent remains about 22% below the $118 peak reached on 30 October. US gasoline also fell below $4 a gallon for the first time since July, easing pressure on central bankers who are grappling with elevated inflation.

Trump's message on the war

Trump told reporters on Monday, after meeting Qatari prime minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani at the White House, that Iran was finished as a military threat. He said the US remained ready to act if needed. Qatar is mediating talks between Washington and Tehran.

“Iran, militarily, is effectively over.”

On Sunday, Trump told CNN that new strikes were highly unlikely while peace negotiations advance, depending on whether Iran signs a very strong deal. He also said the naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would remain in place. Republicans lost control of both chambers of Congress in the 3 November midterm elections, a result that reflected voter discontent with the war, which the US and Israel began against Iran on 28 February. Congressional Democrats are now weighing whether to use a looming government shutdown deadline to push Trump toward an off-ramp. Iranian authorities also announced US attacks on several points of Qeshm island overnight, the third round of bombing against the island in a week.

Oil keeps moving through Hormuz

Attacks on ships in the Strait continue, yet crude keeps leaving the region. Saudi shipping firm Bahri said on Tuesday that it is sending some tankers through the waterway in coordination with the US military. After a wave of Hormuz crossings over the past couple of months, overall oil shipments from the Middle East are close to pre-war levels. BankPro estimated that combined exports from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq and Kuwait rose 10% in October from September, to 15.53 million barrels a day. Its chief executive, Paolo Broccardo, said it is still too early to speak of a sustained bearish market. He added that prices will depend on a military de-escalation that reopens the Strait, and warned that without diplomatic progress, attacks on ships and Gulf energy infrastructure could keep prices high.

Positioning and outlook

Data from Kpler show trend-following commodity trading advisers cut their Brent long positions to 9% on Tuesday, down from 45% at the end of the previous session, and they were poised to liquidate more bullish bets. Robot traders also reduced their West Texas Intermediate longs to 9%.

9 November, end of session45%

10 November9%

9 November, end of session

45 %

10 November

9 %

Data from the article text

Capital Economics economist Hamad Hussain linked the decline to market expectations.

“The fall in oil prices is mainly being driven by investor optimism that there will be a diplomatic end to the war soon.”

Hussain also pointed to robust crude flows from the Middle East as a possible factor. Tim Waterer of KCM Trade said attacks on shipping in the Strait have not intensified enough to add a new risk premium to prices. ING analysts said flows across the Gulf, particularly on routes that bypass Hormuz, are near pre-war levels. Their scenario of no change, with occasional US-Iran tensions and no significant prolonged disruption, forecasts prices averaging about $77 a barrel in 2027.