Conflicts · Washington, Tehran, and Doha

Iran presses US to accept its Hormuz conditions as Brent falls below $90

Iran is pressing Washington to answer its conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, while Brent crude slipped below $90 a barrel on Tuesday, 10 November, for the first time since August.

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Washington, Tehran, Doha · United States, Iran, Qatar
How it came to this
  1. 30 OctBrent touches a six-month high of 118 dollars per barrel
  2. Week before 9 NovemberBrent falls about 16% to a low of 93.22 dollars, its biggest weekly drop since the Covid-19 pandemic began
  3. 9 NovBrent closes down 5.85% after Trump says he will hold off on new strikes
  4. 10 NovBrent slips below 90 dollars for the first time since August

Tehran presses Washington on its conditions

Iran is pressing the United States to respond to its demands under a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that has remained effectively closed to global oil and gas trade since the war began on 28 February. That war started with US and Israeli strikes that killed Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, and caused the deaths of thousands of civilians. Tehran now proposes reopening the strait within two days, instead of the seven days in an initial plan it presented in September. Its demands include an end to the war on all fronts, the release of Iranian assets, the lifting of oil sanctions and an end to the blockade of Iranian ports. Abbas Araghchi, Iran's head of diplomacy, insisted through the state news agency IRNA that neither military means nor tougher sanctions would settle the conflict.

“The conflict with Iran will not be resolved either through the military path or by tightening sanctions.”

Abbas Araghchi, iran's head of diplomacy
Key steps in the Iran conflict and Hormuz plans
  1. US and Israeli strikes start the war and kill Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei
  2. A temporary agreement is concluded, with seven terms Iran says Washington must act on
  3. Iran presents an initial plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days
  4. Iran proposes reopening the strait within two days in exchange for US responses to its demands

Trump holds off on new strikes

Donald Trump told CNN on Sunday, 8 November, that he considered new attacks on Iran highly unlikely while negotiations continue. On Monday, 9 November, he said he planned to postpone fresh strikes for now, after appeals from regional countries, including Qatar's prime minister, during talks at the White House. In a Reuters interview and later at a White House briefing, Trump said he intends to keep the naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in place for the moment. He also acknowledged that the conflict, which drove up oil prices, contributed to the Republican defeat in the midterm elections. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, accused Washington of spreading false reports about non-existent talks.

“It is time for them to submit to the seven conditions Iran has repeatedly set.”

Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council

Oil falls below $90

Brent crude closed down 5.85% on Monday, its lowest close since 31 August. Intraday that day, Brent for January delivery fell more than 6.75% to 91.66 dollars a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate for December delivery lost 5.41% to 85.94 dollars. In the week before 9 November, Brent dropped about 16% to a low of 93.22 dollars, its lowest in two months and its biggest weekly fall since the Covid-19 pandemic began. On Tuesday, Brent slipped below 90 dollars for the first time since August, with quotes ranging from 89.21 to 90.68 dollars depending on the outlet and hour, and WTI between 84 and 85.09 dollars. TACenergy analysts wrote that peace expectations have fed the sell-off even though fighting shows no sign of easing. Brent remains about 22% below the six-month high of 118 dollars it touched on 30 October.

Talks, shipping and markets

Qatar and Pakistan are running diplomatic consultations aimed at ending the war. An Iranian security official told state media that Tehran will not negotiate unless Washington acts on the seven terms set out in a temporary agreement concluded in June. Saudi Arabia and Oman's foreign ministers, in a phone call on Monday, stressed continued diplomacy, maritime security and freedom of navigation. Attacks on ships near or inside the Strait of Hormuz continue, and both countries have reported incidents. A Reuters survey found OPEC output rose in October, led by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq, despite continuing export constraints. On Tuesday, the Stoxx 600 rose 0.9% to 662.54 points, close to the record highs it touched in early August, while London's FTSE 100 gained 0.4% to 10,828 points.

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