Brent falls below $90 as Trump says the Iran war is effectively over

Oil falls on Trump's remarks about the war

Brent crude slipped below $90 a barrel on Tuesday, 10 November, for the first time since August, trading at $89.92 around midday for January delivery, down 2.9%. Prices have been sliding step by step since 23 October, when Brent reached a six-month high of $118 on 30 October. Since then the benchmark has lost about 22%, and market observers attribute the decline to easing fears of further military escalation and of long-lasting disruption to Middle East oil supplies.

On Monday, 9 November, Donald Trump said after meeting Qatar's prime minister, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, that the military confrontation with Iran was effectively over. He said the status quo was being kept at the urging of neighbouring countries and that new US strikes were unlikely, though US forces remained ready to act. The naval blockade of Iran would stay in place, and Qatar is acting as a mediator.

2026-10-30

118 USD per barrel

2026-11-05

94.42 USD per barrel

2026-11-10

89.92 USD per barrel

Data from the article text

Midterms and pressure in Congress

The price move also reflects the US midterm elections in early November, in which Trump's Republicans suffered a defeat and the Democrats won majorities in both the Senate and the House. Rystad Energy's chief economist Claudio Galimberti argued that the government now has a narrower room for manoeuvre and faces more pressure to reach a deal on Hormuz. Democrats in Congress are weighing whether to use the deadline for a government shutdown, which runs out on 11 December, to press Trump into ending the war. An unnamed analyst at A/S Global Risk Management said markets are betting Trump will not order new attacks on Iran and that the largest price step has probably already happened. Gregory Brew of Eurasia Group said Brent is unlikely to fall much below $90 without lasting easing and an agreement between Washington and Tehran.

Blockade, Hormuz and the wider Gulf

Iran wants the United States to end its naval blockade of Iranian ports and lift sanctions. Washington wants Iran to stop attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and to make concessions on its nuclear programme. The talks have not produced a deal. The conflict was begun by the US and Israel and has now lasted nine months. Oil exports from the Middle East have recovered to close to pre-war levels, and the Saudi shipping company Bahri says it is sending some tankers through the strait in coordination with the US military. Attacks on ships continue, however, according to Eurasia Group's analysis. On Monday the East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia was attacked near Medina, and the energy ministry said the fire was quickly put out. A survey of OPEC output found production rose in October even though exports stayed restricted, with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq pumping more. In Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu lost his parliamentary majority last month, and Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the centrist Yashar party, is due to try to form a coalition.

Pump prices and what comes next

German motorists are feeling the drop. ADAC figures put the national daily average for E10 at 1.991 euros per litre on Monday, the lowest since 1 July, and diesel at 2.236 euros. Those figures may not yet fully reflect the latest declines, and Tankerkönig data pointed to further falls on Tuesday morning. The relief follows record pump prices in German stations in September. In the United States, an analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air found that drivers have paid more at the pump since 28 February than drivers in any other country. The next test is whether the more measured tone produces progress, with Qatar mediating and talks in Abu Dhabi now involving higher-ranking diplomats than in earlier rounds.