Oil slides below 100 dollars as Democrats' midterm win lowers odds of renewed Iran strikes

Brent falls below 100 dollars

Oil prices fell sharply on Wednesday, 4 November, after the midterm elections in the United States. Brent crude for January delivery settled at 94.62 dollars a barrel, down 8.67% from the 103.66 dollars at which it closed on Tuesday, according to Notícias ao Minuto. Through most of the session the benchmark held between 103 and 104 dollars before the steep decline began at 16:30. WirtschaftsWoche reported that the drop pushed Brent below 100 dollars for the first time since 7 October. European gas also fell by nearly 7%, to 88.08 euros per megawatt-hour according to Il Sole 24 Ore, or to 85 euros according to La Razón.

2026-11-03103.66

2026-11-0494.62

2026-11-03

103.66 $/bbl

2026-11-04

94.62 $/bbl

Data from the article text

Why traders pushed prices down

Democrats took majorities in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, giving them more say over war funding and confirmation votes. Investors read that as a lower chance of renewed US strikes on Iran, after Trump had threatened new attacks following the midterms and Brent had climbed to a six-month high in October. While polls were still open, Trump told the Financial Times he had no immediate plans to step up attacks, and he later conceded it was "largely true" that Republicans lost because of the war. JD Vance wrote on X that the war was the reason for the defeat and that any frank discussion of the way ahead has to begin there, and WirtschaftsWoche reported that he cited a pollster who said the United States should end the war and change its relationship with Israel. Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer promised that Democrats would bring an end to the conflict, which is now in its ninth month.

What analysts expect next

Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad Energy, said that with both chambers able to pass resolutions, hold back war funding and delay confirmation votes, the administration faces a narrower room to reach a deal on the Strait of Hormuz. WirtschaftsWoche noted that the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz had earlier driven the sharp rise in prices. Emily Ashford, head of energy research at Standard Chartered, said the coming days would show whether oil markets see a real easing, and that the Republican defeat is no guarantee of one. Ben Cahill of the Atlantic Council told Axios that the price slide was tied directly to the US vote and to expectations that Trump would de-escalate rather than escalate with Iran. Pavel Molchanov of Raymond James called Vance's post a key catalyst for the steep fall, but said it was unclear whether the remarks marked a more conciliatory position toward Tehran. Seb Barker, a strategist at the Marshall Wace fund, told the Financial Times that investors expect political checks on the war from the incoming Congress and members of the administration.

Diplomacy hopes and tight fuel supply

Oil had already started the week lower, as Reuters reported that Brent and West Texas Intermediate fell more than 3% on Monday, 2 November, on hopes of a diplomatic solution to the US-Iran conflict. Media reports of possible progress in peace efforts and an interim arrangement between Washington and Tehran also fed those hopes, according to WirtschaftsWoche. Axios reported that contacts between the two countries were resuming earlier in the week. Physical markets remain tight, though. Crude cargoes leaving the Persian Gulf have picked up again, but shipments of refined products are still restricted. US distillate stocks, which include diesel, fell below 100 million barrels in the latest week, the lowest since 2003, according to government data. On Thursday, 5 November, Il Sole 24 Ore reported Brent near 94 dollars and WTI at 87.06 dollars, a drop of 1.2%.