Key early races test whether Democrats can win the US Senate in November

Florida and Virginia open the night

Florida is the first state to watch, with most polls closing at 7pm ET and the state counting quickly. Attention then turns to FL-14 in Tampa at 8:01pm, a district that was redrawn in the mid-cycle redistricting fights from Harris +8 to Trump +11. Party strategists say that if Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor holds on there, Republicans can all but lose their majority. Next is FL-25, described as the country's most expensive general election race, where Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz's contest could stay close enough to give House Republicans hope. In Virginia, polls close at 7pm, but tight races often are not called until the 9pm hour, and a Democratic flip of VA-01 (Trump +5) would make for a very good night. A hold by Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans in Hampton Roads, a seat Trump carried by 0.2 points in 2024 while she won by 3.8 points, could bode well for Sen. Susan Collins in Maine and Rep. Ashley Hinson in Iowa.

Alaska and the fight for the Senate majority

Democrats need a net gain of at least four seats to take control of the Senate, where Republicans hold a 53-47 majority. In Alaska, Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan is running against Democrat Mary Peltola, a former US representative, and an independent candidate who shares Sullivan's name. Four candidates are on the ballot under ranked-choice voting, and Republicans accuse Democrats of recruiting the namesake deliberately to confuse voters. Trump described that candidacy in harsh terms:

“It was a scheme. It was election fraud. Total election fraud.”

Peltola has rejected the accusations and says the dispute distracts from voters' concerns about prices:

“I feel like this is yet another diversion from the issue that Alaskans want to talk about, which is affordability.”

Trump won Alaska by 13 points in 2024, yet recent polls suggest Peltola narrowly leads Sullivan. She raised $33m in October, against nearly $14m for Sullivan, while Republicans have spent $42m on the race compared with $38m from Democrats.

Republicans42

Democrats38

Republicans

42 $m

Democrats

38 $m

Data from the article text

Nebraska, Texas and Iowa

In Nebraska, a New York Times/Siena University poll put Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts ahead of independent Dan Osborn, 49 percent to 43 percent. Osborn came within seven percentage points of winning a Senate seat in 2024, when Trump carried the state by 20 points, but 55 percent of voters now see him as more of a Democrat than anything else. Just one third of voters consider him an independent.

Pete Ricketts (R)49%

Dan Osborn (I)43%

Pete Ricketts (R)

49 %

Dan Osborn (I)

43 %

Data from the article text

Nebraska's Democratic Party is viewed favorably by just over a quarter of voters, against 45 percent for Republicans, and close to half of voters approve of the president's job performance, above the national average of 37 percent. In Texas, Gov. Greg Abbott, who has led the state for nearly 12 years, faces Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, and Attorney General Ken Paxton is running for the US Senate seat against Democrat James Talarico. A Talarico win would end a three-decade lockout from power in Texas for his party. In Iowa, Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson faces Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek, a two-time Paralympic gold medallist, in an open seat after Sen. Joni Ernst decided not to seek re-election.

The national picture and what comes next

On Friday, 30 October, the Cook Political Report shifted another dozen House races toward Democrats, and analyst Erin Covey wrote that Democrats have a realistic possibility of winning as many as 240 House seats. Democrats also see higher odds of winning the at least four additional Senate seats they need and a majority of governorships for the first time since 2010. Ted Cruz, a Republican senator from Texas, said on his podcast on Friday, 30 October:

“What we're seeing across the country is massive Democrat turnout.”

He went on to say Republicans would lose both the House and Senate if the early votes already cast were counted. Republicans hold a significant spending advantage and hope that late deciders, who often favor them, will close the gap. Trump's job approval has sunk to record lows, below 40 percent in most polls, while the cost of living, the top concern for voters, is outpacing income growth. As of 31 October, close to 50 million ballots had already been cast.