Macron pledges to stop new riots as France's protests, debt and budget fears mount

A bill that would make protesters pay

Emmanuel Macron has pledged to prevent further rioting and looting, relying on a heavier security presence while asking his government to respond to some of the protesters' demands. The most contested measure is a "vandals pay" bill that the government is fast-tracking. Under it, a protester could be liable for up to €10,000 in damage and vandalism even without having caused it personally, if they kept demonstrating nearby or belonged to the same group as the perpetrators. The bill would also allow greater use of drones at protests. Trade unions accuse Macron of trying to curb the fundamental right to protest, and the Senate is due to debate the text in the week of 26 October.

Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu called the bill "absolutely essential" after looting and burning during recent demonstrations. It was first drafted after violent clashes that followed Paris Saint-Germain's Champions League win over Arsenal in May. Macron has described the crisis in stark terms:

“It's not normal that six months before a presidential election, our country should be in such a state”

How the unrest unfolded

High-school students have blockaded schools for more than a month, demanding a response to teacher absences, repairs to decrepit buildings and changes to the university applications platform. Trade unions and gilets jaunes activists have since joined street protests over the cost of living and public services. The first round of demonstrations, on 17-18 October, was marred by rioting and looting, and authorities managed to prevent a repeat over the weekend of 24-25 October. Hundreds of thousands marched in cities across France on Saturday, 24 October, as complaints about underfunded schools mixed with anger over rising prices. Authorities have since stepped up security and placed restrictions on demonstrating.

Markets and public finances

Investors were already dumping French debt or demanding historically high returns before the demonstrations began, because the government has failed to significantly cut a stubbornly high budget deficit or bring down €3.5 trillion of debt. Former Prime Minister Michel Barnier told POLITICO:

“France is on the brink of a financial crisis.”

Eric Lombard, who served as economy and finance minister last year, said of the unrest:

“It is clear that protests have an impact on markets.”

Lecornu's proposed 2027 budget already includes €43 billion in savings, leaving little room for further cuts, so the government must choose between borrowing more, which would add interest costs for future generations, and hoping the protests die out on their own. The IMF puts total public debt at nearly 120% of the economy, and France has not balanced its budget since 1974. Luke Hartigan, a senior economics lecturer at the University of Sydney, called France a "warning signal" for Australia, whose total government debt stands at 53% of the economy, and said the French economy's stagnation had compounded its fiscal problems.

Cost of the damage and the 2027 race

POLITICO reports that the rioting is estimated to have cost tens of millions of euros, much of which insurance is expected to cover. The Yellow Vest protests of 2018 to 2020 cost the French economy 0.1% of GDP, with shops reporting losses of €2 billion. Marine Le Pen, who has appealed to France's highest court against her conviction for embezzling European Parliament funds, launched her presidential campaign at a rally in Orléans on Sunday, 25 October, promising to bring back order to France. Most polls put far-left rival Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the mix for second place, and both he and Le Pen want to spend billions lowering the retirement age ahead of a presidential runoff in the spring.