Latino early voting surges before US midterms as Democrats lead polls

Early voting runs ahead of 2022

Americans vote on Tuesday, 3 November, in midterm elections that will decide which party controls Congress for the last two years of Donald Trump's term. By Friday, 30 October, more than 43 million people had already cast ballots, according to El Confidencial. That is roughly a third of all votes cast in the 2022 midterms and nearly 10 million more than at the same point four years earlier. The surge is sharpest in states with tight Senate contests, with early ballots up 83% in South Carolina and 50% in Texas, and up more than 30% in Maine, Michigan, North Carolina and Kansas.

Latino voters, a group that has usually abstained more than others, are casting early ballots in unusual numbers. By Friday, 30 October, 5.2 million Latinos had voted early, 12.75% of the total according to Voto Latino, compared with 8% at the same stage before the 2018 midterms. In the 2022 midterms only 37% of Hispanic voters turned out, against 52% of the electorate overall. Latinos make up at least 20% of the registered electorate in about two dozen tight House races, including contests in Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Pennsylvania and Texas.

2018 (same point before election)8%

2026 (by Friday, 30 October)12.75%

2018 (same point before election)

8 %

2026 (by Friday, 30 October)

12.75 %

Data from the article text

María Teresa Kumar, president of Voto Latino, presented the figures with a blunt verdict on the trend.

“It is the tsunami that Voto Latino has long been predicting.”

Latino voters in South Texas

In 2024 many Latinos backed Trump because they expected a stronger economy and believed he would expel migrants who committed crimes. Now the high cost of living and ICE detentions are pulling many of them the other way. According to The New York Times, Trump's support among Latinos has fallen from 44% to 31%. In the Rio Grande Valley of South Texas, where more than 90% of residents identify as Latino or Hispanic, Trump lost the area by 15 points in 2020 but carried the counties of Cameron, Hidalgo, Starr and Willacy in 2024 by between 3 and 16 points, according to BBC News Mundo. Polls there now show Democrats in front. Jessica Cantú, a 38-year-old mother of six who voted for Trump in 2024, says her brother has been deported and describes the mood among her neighbours.

“We Latinos feel used and betrayed.”

EL PAÍS reporters visiting the valley found churches that are now half empty, and a small construction business owner said most of his workers, nearly all immigrants, have stopped coming to work out of fear.

Polls and early-ballot data

Polls show Democrats eight points ahead on the generic congressional ballot, a margin similar to 2018, when they regained the House with 41 more seats. In the Senate, Democratic candidates lead in Texas, Ohio, Iowa and Alaska, but the gap in those contests falls within the margin of error. Charles Franklin, a pollster who directs a polling institute at Marquette University in Wisconsin, says the final average in the last five midterms missed actual results by between 0.2 and 3.5 points, and that those misses almost never fall at random. Polls also failed in 2016, when Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin went to Donald Trump despite surveys that showed them firmly Democratic. Nevada, where Trump won by about three points in 2024, offers a clearer read because authorities publish daily party data for early voters. Jon Ralston, director of The Nevada Independent, found registered Democrats had a lead of almost 42,000 ballots over Republicans as of Friday, while two years earlier Republicans led at the same point. Knowing who has voted, however, does not reveal how they voted.

The pope's mail-in ballot

Pope Leo XIV was born in Chicago 71 years ago and has a registered home address in New Lenox, Illinois. The Holy See press office confirmed on 30 October that he had cast a mail-in ballot in Chicago, and his choice of candidates has not been disclosed. The Vatican's statement framed the vote as part of his long-standing practice of civic participation.

“Leo XIV has exercised his right to vote as a citizen of the United States whenever he has had the opportunity to do so.”

The papal vote is the first time a pope has voted in an election in his country of origin after being elected leader of the Catholic Church.