US midterms: Democrats lead polls as Trump warns Republicans face an existential vote on 3 November

What voters decide on Tuesday

US voters go to the polls on Tuesday, 3 November 2026, to elect all 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats. Governorships in 36 states and referendums in most of the 50 states are also on the ballot. Donald Trump is not a candidate, but the midterms are widely treated as a verdict on his governing, and he has urged supporters to vote as if his name were on the ballot.

Republicans currently hold 218 House seats to the Democrats' 215 and 53 Senate seats to 47. Of the 35 Senate seats in play, 22 are held by Republicans, mostly in states Trump carried by wide margins in 2024. Maine and North Carolina each currently have one senator from each party, while Ohio, Texas and Alaska have long been Republican strongholds.

The articles report Democrat James Talarico narrowly ahead of Republican Ken Paxton in Texas, Democrat Abdul El Sayed ahead of Mike Rogers in Michigan, and Democrat Troy Jackson slightly ahead of Republican senator Susan Collins in Maine.

Polls point to a Democratic lead

Between 1 September, the official start of the campaign's final stretch, and Monday, the eve of the vote, Democratic voting intention rose by about three points in polling averages. The generic House ballot, which asks about parties rather than candidates, puts Democrats more than eight points ahead. El País notes doubts about how accurate the polls are, even as the lead is being called a 'blue wave'.

Trump's standing is weak. A New York Times poll cited by El País found 36% of likely voters approving of his performance two weeks before the vote, a new low for that survey, with 59% disapproving. El País's own average puts his approval at 37%, while some polls show it just above 30%.

NYT poll: approve (likely voters)36%

NYT poll: disapprove (likely voters)59%

El País polling average: approval37%

NYT poll: approve (likely voters)

36 %

NYT poll: disapprove (likely voters)

59 %

El País polling average: approval

37 %

Data from the article text

Democrats are campaigning on the economy, arguing Trump has not eased the cost of living as he promised in 2024, and on the war in Iran, which has pushed up fuel prices. Trump has held 28 rallies in the past two months, beginning with a September convention in Dallas, the first Republican convention held in a midterm year.

Trump's warnings about the vote

In an interview with Australian conservative columnist Miranda Devine, Trump said that losing the House, the Senate and the presidency would leave the country finished, echoing Elon Musk. He pledged to veto Democratic bills if his opponents win the House, and said they would have to negotiate with him to pass anything.

Trump also cast doubt on election integrity. Asked whether he expected an honest vote, he said no. Courts have rejected several of his efforts to block vote counts, including in Alaska, where he argues that Republican Dan Sullivan and independent Daniel J. Sullivan have nearly identical names that voters could confuse.

Pardons and the 2028 question

In a Newsmax interview on 15 October, Trump said he was authorised to pardon himself and that he did not want his team to face years of legal fees. Federal courts have not settled whether a president can pardon himself. La Razón cites a 5 August 1974 Justice Department opinion, issued shortly before Richard Nixon resigned over Watergate, which concluded that a president cannot pardon himself. A self-pardon would likely be challenged in court, and the 1974 opinion itself pointed to the 25th Amendment, under which a president may declare himself temporarily unable to serve.

Trump cannot seek a third term because the 22nd Amendment bars it, and he served from 2017 to 2021. The next presidential election is scheduled for 7 November 2028, with the winner due to take office on 20 January 2029.

Key dates

The timeline below runs from the start of the campaign's final stretch to the next presidential cycle.