Italian population projected to drop by 13 million by 2080, ISTAT warns

Population trajectory through 2080

Italian national statistics agency ISTAT released demographic projections extending to 2080 on Monday, forecasting that Italy's resident population will drop from 58.9 million on 1 January 2025 to 55 million in 2050. By 2080, the population is projected to fall to 45.8 million, representing a loss of more than 13 million residents over 55 years. Births fell to approximately 355,000 in 2025, which represents the lowest annual level since the unification of Italy in 1861, with the fertility rate standing at 1.14 children per woman. Annual births are expected to remain near 355,000 through 2030 before falling to 335,000 in 2050 and 281,000 in 2080. Andrea Rosina, professor of demography and social statistics at the Catholic University of Milan, described the scale of the projected contraction.

It is as if Lombardy and Tuscany suddenly disappeared.

Mortality and immigration dynamics

Annual deaths in Italy are projected to rise from approximately 652,000 in 2025 to 708,000 in 2030, before reaching a peak of 869,000 in 2058 as the post-war baby boom generation ages. ISTAT determined that foreign immigration will not bridge the gap between births and deaths. Annual immigrant arrivals are projected to move from about 432,000 in 2025 to 423,000 in 2030, then decrease to 372,000 in 2050 before rising back to 404,000 in 2080. The widening gap between mortality and natality creates a structural natural deficit across the forecast horizon.

Future births will not be able to rebalance natural dynamics.

Age distribution and workforce contraction

The average age of residents in Italy is projected to increase from 46.9 years in 2025 to 51 years by 2050. The proportion of citizens aged 65 or older will rise from 24.7% in 2025 to 34.5% in 2050. Over the same period, the share of the working-age population (defined as individuals aged 15 to 64) is forecast to decrease from 63.4% to 55.3%. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni made boosting the birth rate a stated policy priority after taking office in 2022, though birth numbers have continued to fall. The contraction of working-age cohorts reduces available labour even as overall workforce participation is expected to rise.

Household composition and regional disparities

Family structures across Italy are projected to transform over the coming quarter-century. The number of couples with children is expected to decline from 7.5 million (28.1% of households) in 2025 to 5.8 million (21.1%) in 2050, representing a 22.3% contraction. By contrast, childless couples are projected to increase by 8.8%, rising from 5.4 million to 5.9 million (21.4% of households). Nationwide, childless couples will outnumber couples with children starting in 2047. This crossover will occur earlier in northern Italy (2038) and central Italy (2044), while southern Italy will retain a higher proportion of families with children, declining from 31.2% to 22.4% in 2050.

Rise in single-person households

The total number of people living alone is projected to grow by 16% between 2025 and 2050. In 2025, elderly people aged 65 or older account for 46.3% of the 10 million single-person households in Italy; by 2050, that demographic will represent 57% of individuals living alone. In addition, more than four in ten households will consist of individuals without couple or parent-child ties by 2050. The demographic contraction will fall most heavily on southern Italy, where the population is projected to decrease from 19.7 million in 2025 to 16.7 million in 2050, compared to more moderate declines in northern and central regions.