Svimez 2026: South Italy outgrows the Centre-North, but growth slows in 2027

A faster South on paper

The Svimez report on the economy and society of the Mezzogiorno, presented at the Chamber of Deputies in Rome in the presence of President Sergio Mattarella, finds that southern Italy has grown faster than the rest of the country. Between 2021 and 2025 the South's GDP rose cumulatively by 9.5%, against 6.6% in the Centre-North and 7.2% for Italy as a whole. In 2025 alone the South grew 0.7%, while the Centre-North grew 0.5%. Investment was the main engine, up 24.4% in the South against 17.1% in the Centre-North. Construction rose 33.2%, services 8.1% and industry 7.8%, whereas industry in the rest of the country grew only 0.9%.

Mezzogiorno (South)9.5%

Centre-North6.6%

Italy average7.2%

Mezzogiorno (South)

9.5 %

Centre-North

6.6 %

Italy average

7.2 %

Data from the article text

The single zone and the Pnrr

The single special economic zone (Zes unica), introduced by the Meloni government in 2024 by extending the model of earlier special zones to the entire South, is presented as one of the supports behind this trend. In 2025 the tax credit drew more than 10,000 applications covering 7.3 billion euros of investment and 3.6 billion euros of credits requested, 42.8% more than a year earlier. Average authorization times for a single permit almost halved, from 98 to 54 days. Minister of Enterprises Adolfo Urso praised the results, and the report credits the zone with 4.2 billion euros of investment authorized in 2025.

“The report highlights the success of the single ZES.”

The report also credits the Pnrr with a sharp drop in project timelines, which shortened by 45% on average and by 55.1% in the South, while municipalities secured over 21 billion euros in resources, 8.6 billion of them in southern municipalities in 2025. Undersecretary Luigi Sbarra, who holds the South portfolio, pointed to 12 billion euros the government has programmed and allocated for the South from 2024 to 2028.

“The data for the last four years show significant growth in the Mezzogiorno.”

Growth slows in 2027

For 2026 the report expects a narrow southern lead, with GDP up 0.9% in the South against 0.8% in the Centre-North. In 2027 that gap is expected to reverse, with southern growth slowing to 0.5% against 0.6% in the Centre-North. The report points to the fading of the Pnrr impulse as the main drag. Southern investment, forecast to rise 6% in 2026, would slow sharply to 0.8% in 2027, compared with 1.8% in the Centre-North. Added inflationary pressure on incomes and consumption leads Svimez to estimate a 0.1% fall in real disposable household income in the South in 2027, while the Centre-North is expected to gain 0.6%.

South 20260.9%

Centre-North 20260.8%

South 20270.5%

Centre-North 20270.6%

South 2026

0.9 %

Centre-North 2026

0.8 %

South 2027

0.5 %

Centre-North 2027

0.6 %

Data from the article text

Wages, poverty and emigration

Young graduates earn far less than their European peers. Five years after a second-level degree, average net monthly pay is 1,748 euros in the South and 1,780 in the Centre-North, against an EU-27 average of 2,850 euros for the same course and seniority. Real hourly wages fell 9.9% in the South, 7.2% in Italy and 0.6% in the euro area between 2021 and the first half of 2026. The report's wording on the cause is blunt.

“Inflation has therefore produced a significant loss of purchasing power for Italian wages, particularly marked in the Mezzogiorno.”

Work does not protect against poverty in the South, where 19.5% of employed people live in households at risk, against 6.8% in the Centre-North, amounting to about 1.2 million workers. Between 2021 and 2025 the South lost about 154,000 people aged 25 to 34 in exchanges with the Centre-North. In the last three years the Centre-North also recorded a net negative balance with abroad of over 36,000 graduates under 35, and the overall migration balance for that age group remains negative by about 84,000 people. The report also notes growing emigration of women graduates.

Mezzogiorno (South)1,748

Centre-North1,780

EU-27 average2,850

Mezzogiorno (South)

1748 EUR

Centre-North

1780 EUR

EU-27 average

2850 EUR

Data from the article text

Regional snapshots

Campania posted one of the largest employment gains among southern regions, with the employment rate rising from 41.3% to 46.7% between 2021 and 2025, while unemployment fell from 19.3% to 13.9%. Still, 41.2% of its population is at risk of poverty or social exclusion, and its life expectancy at birth, 82.1 years, is the lowest among Italian regions. In Basilicata, investment grew 3.7% and exports rose 29.5% in the first half of 2026 compared with the same period of 2025, while youth unemployment fell from 32.8% to 20.3%. Sicily's employment rate climbed from 41.1% to 47.3% over the same period, but its population of about 4.8 million could fall to about 4.1 million by 2050, a 14.5% decline.