Israel exit polls show Netanyahu's bloc and the opposition deadlocked after first post-October 7 vote

Exit polls point to deadlock

Israel held its first general election since the 7 October 2023 attack on Tuesday, 27 October, with turnout of nearly 78%, the highest since 1999. Exit polls released in the evening suggested that neither bloc would reach a majority, which raises the prospect of another election within months. Three mainstream networks first gave the opposition a slight edge, but by early on 28 October two of them had put both blocs at 51 seats each, while the third still gave the opposition a narrow lead. Exit polls have not always been accurate in previous Israeli elections, and the official result will depend on whether smaller parties clear the 3.25% electoral threshold.

Opposition and Netanyahu blocs

Eisenkot's Yashar party and three other Jewish opposition groups were forecast to win 52 to 53 seats, according to Israel's main television stations, while Netanyahu's coalition was forecast at about 50. The coalition has governed for the past four years and combines his Likud with two ultranationalist and two ultra-Orthodox parties. Major television networks projected Likud as the largest single party, with 24 to 27 seats. Eisenkot, a former military chief, made the end of military service exemptions for Ultra-Orthodox men central to his campaign.

Arab parties as kingmakers

Israel's two Arab parties were projected to win 17 to 18 seats, up from 10 in the outgoing parliament. Exit polls give the religious Muslim party Ra'am seven seats, so any government would need it to play some part. Mansour Abbas, a key Israeli Arab leader, said the right had suffered a loss and that he was open to working with Eisenkot. Eisenkot has said he would not govern with Israeli Arab politicians, a scenario Netanyahu had warned his voters about.

Reactions and next steps

Eisenkot told supporters that the public had voted for change and vowed to work swiftly to form a government. He said a worthy leader would accept the vote and retire, and that holding a second election would be a mistake.

“Netanyahu, don't you dare use Israel's security for your political needs.”

Eisenkot also warned Netanyahu against his threats to launch a new war on Iran, which could scramble coalition talks. Netanyahu did not immediately speak, and few expected him to give up power. His ally Gideon Saar, Israel's foreign minister, called opposition victory declarations premature.