Israeli exit polls show deadlock as Likud leads and Arab turnout surges

Exit polls show a deadlock

Israeli exit polls published on the evening of Tuesday, 27 October, point to a stalemate that will be hard to break. Likud won the most seats, but the opposition bloc together reached 52 or 53 seats against 50 for the parties in the current governing coalition, and a majority requires 61. Netanyahu's coalition won 64 seats at the previous election, so the exit polls show a steep loss. Eisenkot's Yashar party had led the polls for weeks, which makes Likud's lead in the exit polls notable. Neither camp can form a government alone, and both leaders refuse to govern with the Arab parties, which did well thanks to historically high turnout. The official result is due in the coming days.

Previous election64

Exit polls50

Previous election

64 seats

Exit polls

50 seats

Data from the article text

Turnout and Netanyahu's warnings

Turnout ran at the highest level recorded for this point in the day. Volkskrant reported that 55.7% of eligible voters had cast ballots by 15:00, the highest turnout known at that hour. Trouw reported 66.7% with four hours left before polling stations closed, about 9 percentage points above the 2022 election at the same point and the highest since measurements began in 1973. Polling stations close at 22:00 local time, but anyone who arrived before then may still vote, under new rules introduced after complaints about long queues.

Netanyahu posted videos and messages through the day warning about the Arab turnout, saying it would change the character of the Jewish state, and he called the situation an emergency. He also claimed that Jewish women from the left were escorting Arab women voters to the ballot box. He further claimed that police had arrested three senior members of the Arab coalition carrying envelopes of cash, a claim presented here as his own. Haaretz described his campaign as a fear campaign. Election authorities said on Tuesday afternoon that they had found no signs of widespread irregularities.

Complaints and a rejected extension

Several parties filed complaints with the Central Elections Committee. Ra'am, the Islamist party led by Mansour Abbas, alleged a systematic campaign to disrupt its vote, the arrest of activists in the Negev region without a clear reason, and a shortage of Arabic ballots in Nazareth and Shefa Amr. People of Israel said its ballots were missing at some polling stations. Yisrael Beytenu reported a voter who reportedly received a partly opened envelope that already contained a Likud ballot. Yashar said it had received reports of deliberate damage to ballots and feared that roads to polling stations in areas where Eisenkot is popular would be blocked. Earlier on Tuesday the committee rejected a request from Likud and its allies to keep polling stations open past the 22:00 deadline, a request Yashar had opposed.

Rumours of an Iran confrontation

Rumours circulated that Netanyahu had tried to provoke a confrontation with Iran shortly before the vote. Tensions were reportedly rising between him and army chief of staff Eyal Zamir over Netanyahu's wish to reopen airstrikes on Iran, and army leadership reportedly had serious reservations. Netanyahu has denied that there are any tensions. On Sunday, 25 October, Trump said in a statement that he would not attack Iran in the very short term.

What comes next

President Herzog must decide who gets the first attempt to form a government. Both Netanyahu, as the leader of the largest party, and Eisenkot, whose bloc is larger, are expected to demand that chance. The opposition rules out a unity government with Netanyahu, so there is a real chance the country returns to the polls within a few months. Netanyahu remains prime minister in the meantime. The exit poll figures are not the final result, which is due in the coming days.