Israel election exit polls show deadlock, with neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot near a majority

Exit polls show no clear winner

Exit polls released by Israeli television networks on Tuesday, 27 October, pointed to an apparent deadlock. Neither Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud bloc nor the opposition alliance around Gadi Eisenkot looked likely to reach the 61 seats needed. Polling stations opened at 7am local time and were due to close at 10pm. Final results could take days, and smaller parties may end up deciding who forms the government. No party in the Knesset's history has won 61 seats alone, so coalition talks are the usual route, and Netanyahu could stay on in a caretaker role while they run.

Turnout and the diaspora vote

Turnout looked set to be the highest in decades. Sacha Kester, an Israel specialist who spoke to De Volkskrant from Tel Aviv, said it was the highest since 1973. Yossi Shain, a Tel Aviv University political scientist and former Knesset member, told La Stampa that it was already the highest in 45 years. Kester estimated that around 70,000 Israelis living abroad had flown back to vote, a group she said usually opposes Netanyahu. Shain said tens of thousands had made the trip, perhaps enough to tip one or two seats, but he cautioned that these were impressions until the count.

Arab turnout and the Joint List

Kester said Arab Israelis, who make up about 20 percent of the population, were voting in strong numbers, which she said worried Netanyahu's camp. Forecasters were cautious about the effect, but a surge in votes from Israelis of Palestinian heritage could limit gains for Netanyahu's right-wing coalition. Any government formed to oust him would likely need Arab parties' support, a prospect many Jewish party leaders find contentious. Sami Abu Shehadeh, a former MP excluded from the race, leads the Palestinian nationalist and anti-Zionist party Balad. He was shut out after Israel's Elections Committee ruled against him over an article he wrote in the heat of the moment about 7 October, and the Supreme Court declined to overturn that decision. Speaking to Il Fatto Quotidiano, he predicted the highest Arab turnout ever and perhaps 10 seats for the Joint List, but when asked whether the list would back Eisenkot, he answered with a sigh and asked why people kept treating Israel as a normal state.

Trump, Netanyahu and the final push

Before polls opened, Donald Trump restated his 'complete and total' support for Netanyahu. He also alluded to the unresolved US-Israeli conflict with Iran, writing that 'we will soon finish the job' unless 'they change their ways, rapidly'. He added a warning about Israel's leadership:

“If Israel has the wrong leader, which would be anyone other than Bibi [Netanyahu], America will have to do this work ourselves, and I am not inclined to do so.”

Netanyahu urged supporters to get to the polls. In a video described by De Volkskrant, he told followers to skip the beach and the barbecue and go vote, and he framed the day in stark terms:

“This is a fateful moment.”

Le Monde describes Yair Netanyahu, the prime minister's son, as omnipresent on social media, where he has set a 'poison machine' in motion to hurt his father's opponents.

The two main contenders

Netanyahu, 77, has spent nearly 19 of the past 30 years as prime minister and has repeatedly survived political crises. He denies long-running corruption charges, and he faces criticism over intelligence failures that let Hamas-led militants kill 1,200 people and take 251 hostages. Eisenkot, 66, is a former military chief who stresses his security credentials while positioning himself as a centrist at home. The Gaza war took a son and two nephews of his. He entered politics four years ago, joined Netanyahu's war cabinet after the Hamas attack, and quit eight months later, criticising the prime minister's leadership. Some 60 percent of bettors on Polymarket backed Eisenkot to become the next premier, against 27 percent for Netanyahu.

Gadi Eisenkot60%

Benjamin Netanyahu27%

Gadi Eisenkot

60 %

Benjamin Netanyahu

27 %

Data from the article text