Iran weighs strikes on US bases in Bulgaria and Cyprus if war expands

Contingency plans targeting European sites

Iranian military planners have evaluated striking United States military assets located in southern and southeastern Europe in the event of a renewed American offensive. Two Iranian government insiders disclosed that Tehran assessed potential missile strikes against facilities including Bulgaria's Bezmer airbase, which granted access to American refuelling aircraft in July 2026. Planners also examined targeting British facilities in Cyprus, where an airbase was struck by a drone in March 2026. Beyond terrestrial military installations, Iranian forces reviewed options to disrupt subsea fibre-optic communications cables traversing the Strait of Hormuz. Commanders in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated that any future conflict would expand past Middle Eastern installations to hit assets located farther afield.

any base that is used to launch an attack on Iranian territory will be considered a legitimate target

Western defensive readiness and political reactions

Alliance officials and European defence ministries responded to the disclosed contingencies by pointing to existing defensive shields. A NATO official stated that allied air defence systems had successfully intercepted Iranian ballistic missiles launched toward Turkey on four separate occasions earlier in 2026. In Rome, Italian Defence Minister Guido Crosetto criticized the public discussion of potential strike targets while characterizing Tehran's strategic approach.

The tactic with which they faced the war is to bring chaos also toward places and nations that had no role in the conflict.

Academic observers in Tehran presented conflicting interpretations of the reports. Foad Izadi, an international relations professor at the University of Tehran, stated that Iranian ballistic missiles can reach southern Europe and noted that US bases in Italy could serve as potential targets if host nations aid American operations. Conversely, University of Tehran professor Mohammad Marandi suggested the leaks originated from Washington or Israel to apply pressure on European governments.

Strait of Hormuz standoff and regional deadlock

The expansion of potential strike zones coincides with stalled diplomatic negotiations over the Persian Gulf transit corridor following the outbreak of fighting in February 2026. On 18 August 2026, President Donald Trump declared the Strait of Hormuz new American territory on social media and stated that no negotiations were taking place or scheduled with Iranian officials. Tehran insisted that maritime transit will remain blocked until Washington lifts sanctions, ends its naval blockade, and unfreezes Iranian financial assets. While Iranian negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf indicated tentative progress with Oman on a commercial transit framework, Donald Trump threatened military action against Oman after a 60-day negotiating window expired.

Tanker tracking data from Kpler showed commercial traffic remains severely constrained, recording 10 vessel passages on 17 August 2026 and six commodity vessels on 18 August 2026, compared to a pre-war baseline of 130 to 140 transits daily. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei appointed hardliners to key military posts, while Iranian Armed Forces Chief of Staff Ali Abdollahi warned regional Gulf states against assisting foreign forces. Military analysts at the Royal United Services Institute noted that while Iran possesses medium-range systems such as the Shahab missile family capable of reaching southeastern Europe, their operational effectiveness diminishes at extended ranges.