Iran threatens US bases in Europe, including those in Italy and Germany

Tehran's warning to Europe

Iranian lawmaker Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani, a member of the national security commission of the parliament, told Euronews that if the United States uses its bases in Europe, including those in Italy and Germany, Iranian missiles will be launched toward Europe. The remarks, carried by ANSA and Adnkronos on 4 November, argued that European countries had already been at war with Iran in the previous phase by allowing their bases to be used. Ardestani said Iran would strike any base employed against it and would also target the material and immaterial assets of countries backing Washington. He added:

“this time we will not allow the support provided by Europe to America for an attack against Iran to go without consequences”

Another member of the same commission, Fada Hossein Maleki, said Iran had prepared a new approach and a new scenario for any future conflict, one that would catch both the United States and European countries by surprise.

Orders for an unlimited response

Mojtaba Khamenei gave orders on Saturday, 31 October, for a response 'without geographical restrictions' to any enemy threat. On 4 November the Revolutionary Guards (pasdaran) issued a statement promising an 'immediate and effective response' with no geographic limits, at any level and against any type of threat. The same statement said Khamenei had asked for the list of Iranian targets to be updated after he ordered a military response without geographical limits. State media in Tehran warned that a new confrontation with the United States could extend to the 'heart of Europe'.

Red Sea and Hormuz threats

The commander of the Quds Force, Esmail Qann, said the confrontation could reach the Bab el-Mandeb strait in the Red Sea, according to La Repubblica's late report on 4 November. Qann said the entire resistance now forms one front, linked across different scenarios, and warned against judging its reach only by the range of its weapons. He warned that the United States could find itself fighting a war in the Strait of Hormuz while also facing a new front.

US political backdrop

Adnkronos placed the statement the day after Donald Trump's defeat in the US midterm elections, a result that, according to Vice President Vance, stemmed from the war in Iran. Vance's analysis started from a pollster who, the day before the vote, forecast a 13-point Republican defeat in congressional voting intentions, a forecast Vance admitted surprised him despite his pessimism on the eve of the vote. The pollster's surveys showed that many Trump voters from 2024, disappointed and angry, intended to vote Democratic. Asked what would win them back, they named four priorities: ending the war, focusing on cost of living and inflation, putting America first, and changing the relationship with Israel.

Reports of a US plan and the Lajes base

On 5 November Tgcom24 reported that the New York Times had revealed a US plan to attack Iran immediately after the vote. Tgcom24 framed the Iranian warnings as a threat that would extend beyond the Middle East if Washington strikes. In Portugal, the use of the Lajes base by the United States in the war against Iran has already drawn criticism from political parties and Amnesty International. Prosecutors opened an inquiry into the matter in early October. The dated sequence of statements and reports is set out below.