French heatwaves may cost €10-15 billion, minister says, as INSEE denies sourcing estimate

Government cites €10-15 billion estimate

French Minister for Ecological Transition Monique Barbut said on Wednesday, August 12, that this summer's repeated heatwaves could cost France between €10 billion and €15 billion ($17.3 billion) in direct and indirect costs. She unveiled a first assessment of the costs linked to the 2026 summer heatwaves during a crisis meeting at the ministry dedicated to drought, where she convened the Committee for Hydrological Anticipation and Monitoring (CASH) and regional prefectures. Barbut attributed the estimate to France's national statistics agency, INSEE, while urging caution about the figures.

“We can estimate, in any case this is INSEE's estimate and this data should be taken with great caution, an overall cost in the order of 10-15 billion euros, between direct and indirect costs, due to this summer's heatwave.”

However, when contacted by AFP, INSEE stated it was not the source of the estimate and did not have cost figures for the 2026 summer heatwaves at this stage. The discrepancy leaves the provenance of the €10-15 billion range unclear. Le Figaro reported that insurers are still at the assessment stage of damages, while farmers are counting their losses in billions of euros. The exchange rate was $1 = 0.8654 euros.

2022 drought5.6

2026 estimate (low)10

2026 estimate (high)15

2022 drought

5.6 €B

2026 estimate (low)

10 €B

2026 estimate (high)

15 €B

Data from the article text

Comparison with 2022 and worsening conditions

Barbut noted that the 2022 drought resulted in €5.6 billion in direct and indirect costs, but said this year's heatwaves have been longer and more intense, with more extensive forest fires and a greater decline in agricultural production. At a previous meeting in late July, she had already described the drought as "historic" and said costs would exceed the 2022 figure. France is now in its fifth heatwave of the year, with 80 departments on orange alert as of Thursday, August 13. Barbut also said the heatwave period was not over yet. The summer of 2026 has been marked by record temperatures, fires and exceptional drought, according to Le Monde.

Water cuts and supply tensions

The continuing drought has left more than 40,000 people facing water cuts, Barbut said, a figure revised upward from the 30,000 people on 80 municipalities reported at the end of July. Drinking water supply is under tension in 50 French departments.

“Our first priority obviously remains the supply of drinking water, which is already under tension in several territories, more precisely today in 50 French departments.”

The minister convened prefectures and the CASH committee to review the drought situation and share experiences on measures to strengthen anticipation and resilience of territories. The agenda included an inventory of the drought and its consequences, as well as a sharing of feedback on measures to reinforce territorial resilience.

Broader European impact

Economists and academics estimate that Europe's record heat and drought this summer could cost hundreds of billions of euros, as global-warming-driven extremes disrupt power, shipping and public health. Wildfires threaten to make this Europe's worst season on record. Barbut stressed that the economic consequences of climate change have reached a new scale.

“The economic consequences of climate change are now considerable.”