Two studies, one estimate

Two peer-reviewed studies in the journal Nature Health, led by researchers at Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, estimate that more than 50,000 people died from excess heat in European towns and cities this summer. The authors modelled mortality in 854 urban areas across 30 countries: the 27 EU member states, plus the United Kingdom, Norway and Switzerland. Those areas hold about 173 million people, roughly 40% of the population of the 30 countries. The precise estimate is 50,391 deaths between June and August, although some reports round it to slightly above 50,000. The estimates are statistical, built from temperature records and the historical relationship between heat and mortality, rather than from official death reports.

Climate change's growing share

The researchers attribute about two-thirds of the deaths to climate change, a share that was around 40% at the start of this century. The RTE report puts climate-attributable deaths across Europe at 32,619, a figure it says alone exceeded the entire heat mortality of either 2003 or 2022. Clair Barnes of Imperial College London, who leads both studies, said the findings showed the growing consequences of rising temperatures.

“But that mortality has been pushed substantially higher by the human-caused warming, primarily from the burning of fossil fuels.”

Barnes also said the numbers reflect real losses behind the statistics, a point she made in a separate statement on the findings.

“These numbers are a stark reminder that our hotter, more extreme summers are having an increasingly severe impact on public health.”

How this summer compares

The 2026 estimate is the highest for any summer in the 26 years since 2000 in the modelled urban areas. The same framework gives 29,480 deaths for 2022, 28,462 for 2003 and 24,572 for 2025, so the 2026 total is roughly double last year's figure. Some reports round the 2022 and 2003 figures to about 29,000 and 28,000.

202650,391

202229,480

200328,462

202524,572

2026

50391 deaths

2022

29480 deaths

2003

28462 deaths

2025

24572 deaths

Data from the article text

Where and when the deaths fell

Southern and western Europe recorded the highest temperatures and mortality rates, according to the studies. Italy suffered the highest toll, with over 13,000 deaths. Urban areas in the United Kingdom recorded around 4,500 deaths, about 2,500 of them attributed to the heightened severity of heatwaves driven by global warming. In Ireland, the analysis estimates 60 deaths in cities with just over 1.5 million residents, about 35 of them attributable to human-induced climate change. Between 17 June and 1 July, when average daily temperatures across the region ran more than 5C above average, one third of the summer's deaths occurred. Western Europe's seasonal temperatures were 2.9C above the 1991-2020 average, and some countries exceeded their historical averages by as much as 12C on individual days. An estimated 6,000 people under 65 died in the analysed urban areas, although heat mortality mainly affects older people.

Limits of the figures

Official death counts usually include heatstroke but not always the cardiovascular and respiratory deaths that heat makes worse, so the true toll of a heatwave is often underreported. Some governments began publishing near real-time heat-death estimates this summer, while Spain has published such figures since 2015. The studies cover urban areas that together hold about 40% of the population, and the authors note these towns and cities are not necessarily representative of Europe as a whole.