EU Commission unveils first climate resilience law, urging states to plan for 3C warming

A plan for a 3C world

The European Commission unveiled its first Climate Resilience Law on Tuesday, 27 October 2026, accepting that cutting emissions is no longer enough to protect citizens. The proposal asks governments to prepare for a world 2 degrees Celsius hotter in 2050 and 3 degrees hotter by the end of the century, in line with a UN projection that current global policies can only hold warming to 2.8 degrees. The same UN work says the Paris Agreement goal of 1.5 degrees can no longer be reached, while steep emissions cuts are needed to reach the best case of 1.8 degrees. Governments are only encouraged to factor the 3 degree scenario into their policies, budgets and investments. Hoekstra argued that emissions cuts must continue alongside the new adaptation work.

“There is no alternative to continue to cut emissions more forcefully and to move full-frontal into clean energy”

Rules and deadlines

Under the proposal, national governments would carry out climate risk assessments every five years starting in 2029, and draw up climate-proofing plans by the end of 2030. Those strategies would also name the public authorities in charge of each climate risk, a step meant to avoid inaction and finger-pointing among ministries and agencies. Member states would designate the bodies responsible for managing climate risks across different parts of the economy, according to a draft proposal seen by the Financial Times. De Volkskrant reports a yearly climate risk analysis instead, so the assessment cycle differs between reports. The Commission is also building shared baseline assumptions for climate risks and a new website where authorities and businesses can see local effects.

The summer behind the proposal

Europe is heating up at roughly double the global rate, and the package follows a summer of heatwaves, drought and wildfires. Wildfires destroyed thousands of square kilometres of land, while water levels on large rivers such as the Danube and the Rhine fell to worryingly low levels. Researchers estimate that about 50,000 people died from the heat this summer, while de Volkskrant reports 35,000 heat deaths. At a Brussels press conference, Vice-President Teresa Ribera put premature deaths at between 30,000 and 50,000. Hoekstra put the economic damage at more than 100 billion euros, and the FT notes that the 50,000 figure far exceeds the previous record of 29,000 heat-related deaths in summer 2022.

Money and open questions

The proposal comes without new funding. The FT reports that the Commission expects the EU will need 70 billion euros a year on adaptation until 2050, yet the law itself carries no finance. Spain is pushing a levy on fossil fuel companies, which the package does not include. Financing for emissions cuts depends on negotiations over the EU's long-term budget. Some climate campaigners argue that a focus on adaptation could divert resources from cutting greenhouse gas emissions. The package arrives a few weeks before the COP31 climate summit in Turkey, where Europe is expected to press other nations for more action.