European gas tops €100/MWh for first time since 2022 as Brent hits $112 on Iran tensions

Gas and oil prices climb

European natural gas traded above €100 per megawatt-hour on Friday, 30 October 2026, the highest level since late 2022. The benchmark had touched €100 briefly on Wednesday, 28 October, the first time since December 2022, after trading near €28 in early January. Brent crude rose above $112 a barrel in the same session and approached four-year highs. The oil index has gained more than 10% in October, while European gas is on course for a monthly rise of more than 30%.

Iran tensions and Gulf supply

Markets reacted to reports that a senior US commander briefed President Donald Trump on possible military options against Iran. Trump has repeatedly warned that air strikes on Tehran could resume after the US midterm elections in early November. Iranian officials confirmed that Vice President JD Vance had sent a letter aimed at restarting peace talks. Attacks on tankers continue in the Strait of Hormuz, and fighting involving Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthi forces has intensified. Regional crude exports have nonetheless recovered to near pre-war levels, with producers moving cargoes through the waterway. LNG deliveries from the Persian Gulf are reduced, and QatarEnergy has reportedly extended force majeure for several buyers until the end of the year. Extra production outages in Norway add further pressure.

Storage and winter demand

EU gas storage stood at 74.89% of capacity in the latest reading, below historical averages and compared with 83% in the same period last year. Forecasts of lower-than-usual temperatures in northwest Europe from early November would lift heating demand and could draw gas from storage more steadily, ING's Warren Patterson said. Power generators already face prices that make switching from gas to coal economically attractive, and industrial demand is showing signs of weakening. Yara has cut ammonia production in Europe because of high energy costs.

Around 30 October 202674.89%

Same period last year83%

Around 30 October 2026

74.89 %

Same period last year

83 %

Data from the article text

Inflation and the ECB

Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, spoke at a press conference on Thursday, 29 October, after the governing council kept its three key interest rates unchanged. She warned that the full effects of the energy shock have not yet shown in the euro-area economy and that the intensity and duration of energy pressures will shape the impact. Euro-area inflation accelerated to 3.8% in September from 3.2% in August, while energy inflation rose to 18.9% from 14.3%. Excluding energy, inflation edged up to 2.3% from 2.1%, with services at 3.2% and goods at 1.1%. Lagarde said energy prices had exceeded the assumptions behind the ECB's September projections, so headline inflation is expected to stay well above the 2% target over the coming quarters. Underlying price pressures remain relatively stable and wage reactions have so far been limited.

2026-08

3.2 %

2026-09

3.8 %

Data from the article text

EU response and stockpiles

EU energy ministers met in Luxembourg on Thursday, 29 October. Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen said member states had reaffirmed plans to speed up the release of 42.6 million barrels of oil from EU strategic stocks over the coming months, roughly half of it diesel. He said supply security is not expected to be a problem, but that this does not help households struggling to pay their bills. Member states may subsidize fossil fuels if they judge it necessary, but Jørgensen said such measures must be targeted and temporary. He also cited electrification, heat pumps and electric vehicles as measures with short-term benefits, and said cutting electricity taxes is the best way to ease consumer costs. He added that Ukraine faces another very hard winter as Russia keeps attacking its energy infrastructure.

Oil forecasts and shipping costs

UBS raised its end-2026 Brent forecast to $110 a barrel from $100 and lifted its 2027 forecasts. The bank now sees Brent at $95 in March 2027 (up from $90), $90 in June 2027 (up from $85) and $85 in September 2027 (up from $80). UBS said uncertainty around its forecasts remains elevated. Shipping costs have also risen, with a record number of reported attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz in October, according to the bank. Freight rates for very large crude carriers on the Middle East to China route have jumped to $30 to $40 a barrel from $1 to $3 over the previous decade. UBS said these costs continue to support Brent prices.

End of 2026110

March 202795

June 202790

September 202785

End of 2026

110 $/bbl

March 2027

95 $/bbl

June 2027

90 $/bbl

September 2027

85 $/bbl

Data from the article text