Middle East oil exports rebound to 23 million barrels daily as crude prices hold near $100

Export volumes and price resistance

Brent crude futures traded between $98 and $100 a barrel on 1 October, while West Texas Intermediate held near $90 a barrel. High price levels persist despite Middle Eastern crude exports rebounding to approximately 23.3 million barrels per day in late September, matching their 2025 average according to Goldman Sachs estimates. Physical market prices remain elevated, with Argus Media recording prompt delivery crude at nearly $121 a barrel due to increased tanker transit expenses. Traders attribute the gap between expanding flows and high prices to depleted emergency stockpiles and rising purchases from China. Diplomatic efforts have not eliminated supply concerns, as negotiations between Washington and Tehran have stalled without a formal pact.

Flows seem to have picked up. But it's because the industry has said, 'What the hell, let's go for it,' while the politicians have failed to reach any sort of an agreement.

Pipeline restarts and Gulf transit

Persian Gulf producers expanded alternative transit mechanisms to maintain outbound supplies despite disruptions from the war that began in late February. Saudi Arabia resumed tanker loadings on Tuesday from its Red Sea port of Yanbu after restarting operations on the East-West Pipeline. Regional shipments increasingly rely on ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman, shuttle runs, and vessels operating without active transponders. CIBC Private Wealth Group noted that the prompt WTI backwardation narrowed to less than $2 a barrel on Thursday from $4.68 two weeks prior, reflecting near-term physical relief. Maritime security across the Strait of Hormuz remains contested, with US President Donald Trump stating that American forces maintain control over the waterway.

Reports of increased flows through Hormuz look directionally correct, even if the exact volumes are difficult to verify. Time spreads remain backwardated but are well off their highs, suggesting those additional barrels are providing some relief to physical markets.

Fujairah bunkering and refined products

The port of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates, situated outside the Strait of Hormuz, restored its bunkering operations after activity dropped in the second quarter. The UAE imported 2.6 million metric tons of fuel oil in the third quarter of 2026, up from 845,000 tons in the second quarter, according to data from Kpler. September imports reached 856,000 tons, exceeding the 715,000 tons recorded in August but remaining below the 1.7 million tons imported in February. Saudi Arabia replaced Kuwait as Fujairah's largest fuel oil supplier in July and August, while shipments from Russia arrived in September and cargoes from Nigeria and Pakistan are due in October. UAE fuel oil exports exceeded 1.4 million tons in September, overtaking Syria as the largest exporter in the Middle East.

Middle East refinery runs have improved and producers are using ways to get products out, particularly fuel oil, including dark activity, shuttle runs and ship-to-ship transfers.

Stockpile depletion and upcoming OPEC+ policy

Emergency stockpile drawdowns across consumer nations have reduced the market's buffer against potential future interruptions. Data from the US Energy Information Administration indicated that domestic crude inventories rose by 922,000 barrels to 427.3 million barrels in the week ended 25 September, while fuel inventories fell sharply. Distillate stockpiles dropped to their lowest seasonal level on record according to the EIA, keeping refinery processing demand high. Peace talks remain unresolved, as President Trump denied reports suggesting the United States offered sanctions relief or access to frozen funds in exchange for nuclear concessions. OPEC+ member nations are scheduled to meet on Sunday, with delegates expecting production targets for November to remain unchanged.