EU gas storage falls to 75%, lowest since 2013, as IEA warns of 2027 tightness

Storage at its lowest since 2013

The International Energy Agency (IEA) says EU gas storage was 75% full at the end of October, the lowest level since 2013. The figure appears in its Global Gas Security Review 2026, published on Tuesday, 3 November, and sits well below the 80% minimum filling target set at EU level. Europe therefore enters the heating season with less gas in reserve than at any point in more than a decade. That leaves the region more dependent on LNG cargoes just as demand peaks. The IEA warns the exposure is greatest if the winter is colder than expected or if technical faults or other supply interruptions occur.

How the Hormuz closure drained supply

According to the IEA, the Strait of Hormuz has been closed since the start of the Middle East conflict at the end of February. LNG shipments through the strait were practically halted between March and October, cutting more than 60 bcm of gas supplies from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates over that period. Buyers hoped prices would fall further and delayed the purchases needed to refill storage, which left reserves low going into the summer. Injections accelerated in August, September and October, but did not reach the levels of previous years.

Supply, demand and prices

The IEA expects global LNG supply to fall 3% in 2026, a drop it puts at almost 20 bcm. Global gas demand is forecast to decline about 1.5%, or roughly 65 bcm. The fall in demand reflects lower consumption in the Middle East, reduced industrial use in Europe and a switch from gas to coal in power generation in several Asian countries. Rising LNG supply, particularly from North America, and more flexible trading contracts are partly offsetting the shortfall caused by the Hormuz disruption. Even so, gas prices in Asia and Europe have reached their highest levels since the 2022-2023 crisis.

Global LNG supply-3%

Global gas demand-1.5%

Global LNG supply

-3 %

Global gas demand

-1.5 %

Data from the article text

Risks stretching into 2027

The IEA expects gas demand to stay elevated until summer 2027, because reserves will need to be rebuilt over that period. Its simulations, as reported by Bloomberg, show EU storage could fall below 10% of working capacity by the end of March under a worst case of continued LNG disruption and colder weather. The Telegraph reported a similar scenario in which storage shrinks to just 10% full if the strait stays closed until early next year and the winter is cold. Importers in Asia and South America have limited storage capacity, which could intensify competition for the cargoes still available in the coming months. That competition could push spot prices higher.