EU gas storage at 72% on 1 October, with winter supply depending on LNG imports

Winter outlook from the gas network operators

The European gas network operators' association ENTSOG said on Thursday 8 October that the EU can meet its winter gas demand, although storage at "historically low" levels needs close monitoring. EU underground storage was 72 percent full as of 1 October after what the association called a "challenging" season, well below the usual target of 90 percent at the start of winter, a target the bloc has relaxed during the energy crisis. LExpress put the fill rate about ten points below last year and more than 20 percent below 2024 levels. The EU's earlier goal of 80 percent by early November is no longer reachable, according to Germany's Bundesnetzagentur, which said daily injections have "in part remained quite low". Neither ENTSOG nor German authorities see a supply risk for the winter itself.

Gap between member states

Storage varies sharply across the bloc, with France at around 85 percent and Germany at 59 percent according to AFP, while the Bundesnetzagentur measured German levels at 59.2 percent on Wednesday. LExpress reports that France, Italy and Portugal are above 85 percent, whereas Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium pull the average down. ENTSOG flagged landlocked countries in central and eastern Europe, along with southeastern Europe, as likely to struggle most to secure sufficient LNG volumes. ENTSOG said LNG imports can partially compensate for lower storage and called for high deliveries to be maintained throughout the winter. Its chair, Piotr Kus, put the stakes in one line.

Every additional molecule available today, either in storage or via LNG, strengthens the situation in Europe.

Scenarios for prices and supply

IEEFA, a U.S.-based energy think tank, estimates the EU could face a shortfall of up to 14 billion cubic meters this winter, about 7 percent of demand. POLITICO reports that the gas network operators' outlook warns storage could fall as low as 11 percent if LNG imports are limited, while AFP's account of the same outlook says levels could fall "well below 30 percent" by the end of winter. Goldman Sachs's Samantha Dart sketched two cases: if LNG shipments from the Persian Gulf improve, European markets could balance around current prices of about 70 euros per megawatt-hour, but if they do not, prices would need to rise about 40 percent. Oxford Economics economist Angel Talavera offered the sharpest view of the target and the weather.

Reaching the EU's storage target will be difficult this year. In the end, it is the weather that above all determines gas demand during the heating season.

Supply routes and the Russia question

The United States supplies about 60 percent of the EU's LNG imports, and Russia remains the second-largest supplier with around 17 percent of imports in 2026, despite the EU's stated goal of weaning itself off Russian energy. The bloc plans to ban all Russian gas imports by autumn 2027. Ana Jaller-Makarewicz, IEEFA's lead European energy analyst, said the record-low reserves leave the bloc "with less of a buffer" against global supply disruptions. LExpress frames the winter outlook as dependent on whether the Strait of Hormuz stays paralysed. Commissioner Dan Jorgensen warned ministers in a late September letter of "very high" prices and urged countries to cut consumption at peak hours, while the Commission said there was no immediate risk to supply security.