Democrats take Congress in US midterms, raising questions for Trump's foreign policy and allies

A Congress that can check the White House

Democrats took control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives in the midterm elections held on 3 November, winning in districts that lean Republican. Almost all of the Republicans Trump had backed suffered defeats, and governments in many countries are now trying to judge what comes next. Analysts expect the new majority to narrow the president's room to act at home, although Congress holds fewer tools over foreign policy than the White House does. Giuseppe Spatafora, an analyst at the EU Institute for Security Studies, argued that Trump could turn more aggressive abroad as his domestic agenda stalls in Congress, which would make him less predictable. Spatafora also said Democrats were unlikely to cut funding for operations against Iran entirely, since that could put US troops at risk.

Probes into the Iran war and the administration

POLITICO, whose five-point assessment of the election's consequences for Europe was cited by News.ro, expects Democratic investigations into the war with Iran, the functioning of the FBI and the business interests of Trump's family. It compared the coming inquiries to a mix of Bill Clinton's Whitewater scandal, Trump's first impeachment and the Iran-Contra affair. Robert Garcia, a Democrat from California who is expected to become chair of the House Oversight Committee, warned that people should call their lawyers. Wolfgang Ischinger, a German diplomat and long-time chair of the Munich Security Conference, said Europe should prepare for more acrimony and more demands from Trump, not for smoother transatlantic ties. POLITICO also noted that Democrats would gain more openings to challenge the president through spending bills, oversight hearings and stricter conditions on White House requests.

Europe and Romania

Philip Bednarczyk, head of the Warsaw office of the German Marshall Fund and a former adviser on Europe and Eurasia to the House Foreign Affairs Committee, told HotNews that Congress had left Trump a wide path in foreign policy.

“In the last two years, Congress left President Trump a free highway in foreign policy, including on some trade issues.”

Bednarczyk said the new Congress could act on behalf of the eastern flank, Romania included, even against the White House. Siegfried Mureșan, a PNL member of the European Parliament and vice-president of the EPP group, said Romania would have to act differently to reach its goals with Washington. He criticised the attempt to make up for Romania's weak presence in Washington with flattering editorials in the American press, calling that a short-term antidote at best. Mureșan put the lesson more simply.

“The lesson must be that we need to invest in a solid transatlantic relationship.”

Romanian president Nicușor Dan had written opinion pieces in Newsmax in July and in The Washington Times in September. Mureșan expects a serious fight over the future of the Republican Party, because Trump cannot run again in the next presidential election.

Asia, energy and the Iran war

In Asia, which depends heavily on energy from the Middle East, the Democratic win initially brought some optimism. Ja-Ian Chong, an associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore, said the region's main challenge had been inflation caused by the war with Iran, which made everything more expensive. He said there is now hope for some relief, although he and many others doubt that idea. Many countries fear the war could intensify in the short term, possibly with a new attack on Iran by Trump after the vote, deepening the crisis in oil and gas supplies. Chong also said Trump might try to divert attention through tariffs and the use of force, and the mood in the region remains more gloomy than hopeful.