US weighs limited Black Sea ceasefire as G20 clashes flare over Ukraine

A limited truce on the table

The United States, Turkey and India are weighing a narrow ceasefire in the Black Sea that would let grain and energy shipments from Russia and Ukraine move safely again. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told a press conference on the sidelines of the G20 meeting in Atlanta on Saturday, 31 October, that Washington was reviewing proposals from Ankara and New Delhi. He said the situation threatened global food security and, to a degree, energy security, and that Washington wanted to reach such an arrangement. Rubio acknowledged that it would not end the war, but would settle one specific part of it. The initiative responds to frequent attacks on commercial vessels in the sea.

Erdogan presses both sides

In Istanbul on Saturday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelenski at the Dolmabahce Palace, and afterwards issued a statement urging Russia and Ukraine to act responsibly. He put the point this way:

“It is clear that attacks on civilian ships and actions that lead to a further escalation of tensions in the Black Sea serve no one's interests.”

According to HotNews, Ankara passed Moscow and Kyiv a proposal to halt attacks on civilian ships, but says neither has acted on it. Zelenski said he had agreed with Erdogan to work on the Black Sea grain corridor, a reference to the 2022 deal with Russia that allowed some Ukrainian farm products to be exported safely. Zelenski also accused Russia of destabilising the sea region, and Erdogan said talks on restoring navigation safety would continue.

Clashes at the G20 in Atlanta

Sharp exchanges over Ukraine also marked the G20 meeting in Atlanta. EU diplomacy chief Kaja Kallas said she had confronted Russian Foreign Minister Serghei Lavrov directly and accused him of presenting many lies and false narratives, which European officials disputed. British Foreign Minister Ed Miliband said he told Lavrov in the plenary session that he should tell Vladimir Putin that Russia will not win the war. Miliband also raised a recent attack on a railway in Dnipro that killed 15 people, and called Moscow the aggressor in a conflict that began with the February 2022 invasion. According to a diplomatic source cited by AFP, the European push for a Black Sea ceasefire drew a rejection from Lavrov, and several officials reportedly refused to join a group photo with him, so the American organisers cancelled it.

Poland's bid and Moscow's reply

Radoslaw Sikorski, the Polish foreign minister, told reporters in Atlanta that the United States had submitted a motion for Poland to become a permanent G20 member, and that Warsaw was lobbying for it, according to Reuters. He also called for a quick Black Sea armistice that would let grain cargoes from Ukraine and Russia move safely. Lavrov replied that the move breaks the consensus principle of multilateral diplomacy, that Poland brings nothing to the meeting, and that its economy is not large enough to qualify. He also said describing Poland as representing Eastern Europe was inaccurate, because NATO and the EU already cover the region. Lavrov denied that Moscow had pressured anyone over Poland's presence:

“The Americans simply invited the Polish minister, he came and sat down in the chair that was provided to him.”

Backdrop and next steps

The Atlanta meetings took place only a few days before the US midterm elections, which will set the balance of power in Congress for the last two years of Donald Trump's term. On Friday, 30 October, Lavrov had welcomed Washington's willingness to hold a dialogue with Moscow while criticising what he called Europe's arrogant boycott, describing the US approach as a good lesson for European colleagues. The Black Sea proposals remain under US review. The articles give no timetable for a limited arrangement.