Poland and Latvia warn of Russian drone and sabotage threats ahead of Baltic vote
NATO allies are reinforcing Baltic air defenses with German, Italian, and Turkish fighter jets as Warsaw and Riga report preparations for disguised Russian missile and drone incursions.
Latvian election security and NATO air patrols
Latvia is preparing for its parliamentary elections on 3 October 2026, prompting the government in Riga to request enhanced air defense capabilities and increased NATO patrol flights. President Edgars Rinkēvičs stated that while a conventional, massive Russian military assault on NATO and EU territory is not currently feasible, Moscow will target critical infrastructure through sabotage and disinformation. Air defenses over Latvia will receive reinforcement from German Eurofighter fighter aircraft, alongside Turkish and Italian air force detachments stationed at allied bases in Estonia and Lithuania. This deployment marks the first time Latvian airspace has been placed under dedicated surveillance specifically for an election cycle. Rinkēvičs called on citizens across the country to support the national armed forces and immediately report any suspicious activities to security agencies.
Categorisation of Baltic hybrid threats
The security threats identified by Latvian authorities include cyberattacks, unauthorized drone incursions, disinformation campaigns, and ongoing migration pressure along the border with Belarus. Rinkēvičs commented that describing state-sponsored disruption as hybrid threats softens the public perception of direct sabotage. He noted that the term brings to mind a hybrid car rather than terrorism and diversion. The Latvian presidency stated that Russia aims to conduct aggressive disruptions throughout the autumn and winter to pursue battlefield success in Ukraine while attempting to intimidate European allies and fracture NATO cohesion.
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Polish intelligence warnings on disguised strikes
Poland has issued specific warnings to European partners concerning Russian intentions against countries supplying military aid to Ukraine. In an address to the Sejm, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk cited intelligence assessments indicating that Moscow is preparing hybrid attacks using unmanned aerial vehicles and missiles directed at logistics and support infrastructure. Tusk stated that Russian planners intend to portray any incoming strikes as accidental, aiming to paralyse or diminish the willingness of NATO member states to invoke the Article 5 mutual defense clause. The statement followed Tusk's address marking the 17 September anniversary of the 1939 Soviet invasion, in which he asserted that Poland will not allow itself to be intimidated.
In 1939 we were practically alone, today we are in NATO and the EU.
Regional defense measures and US ties
Tusk reinforced Poland's regional stance with a visit to Kyiv on Friday to demonstrate direct political support to Ukrainian leadership. The Polish prime minister stated that the coming period would test regional resolve.
We have difficult weeks and months ahead. Today, in Ukraine we show solidarity.
Polish media reports indicate that Warsaw plans to increase arms deliveries to Ukraine, including PAC-3 MSE interceptors for Patriot air defense batteries. Alongside alliance commitments, Poland is developing bilateral defense arrangements with Washington. Donald Trump stated that discussions regarding a permanent US military base on Polish territory are advanced, citing Poland's defense expenditures exceeding NATO guidelines and its position as the largest buyer of American military equipment in the region.
