Siewiera warns of a winter escalation

Jacek Siewiera, a former head of the National Security Bureau (BBN), told Radio ZET that Poland stands on the threshold of a confrontation with Russia. Asked when it might come, he said "we have two months left" and argued that the essential phase of Russia's hybrid war still lies ahead and will take place this winter. He said he had called for preparations three years earlier. The escalation he described would include air attacks aimed at infrastructure, administrative buildings and civilian facilities.

“Are we on the threshold of confrontation? I think so. Its essential chord is ahead of us and will take place this winter.”

NATO and who decides

Siewiera dismissed the idea that a direct Russian attack would break up NATO, describing such debate as part of political games. He pointed to a vote of all NATO member states that gave the American general Alexus Grynkewich, NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe, pre-authorisation to use NATO forces, American ones included, in the Polish theatre, even in confrontations below the threshold of war. He said the narrative belongs to politicians, while the decision on using those forces now rests with the commander alone.

Sikorski challenges the president

Radosław Sikorski, Poland's deputy prime minister and foreign minister, answered President Karol Nawrocki in an interview with Gazeta Wyborcza. In an interview with Rzeczpospolita published on 13 October, Nawrocki said the Russian threat had not changed drastically and described the government's public warnings as a "distribution of fear".

“I believe that downplaying a threat that is clearly growing is extremely irresponsible.”

He said that if the president had privileged information, from the United States or directly from Russians, showing no plans to intensify attacks on Poland, that fact should be recorded. Sikorski argued that Russia had shifted to a wartime footing while some in the West, including Poland, still behaved as in peacetime. He urged the president and his circle not to turn the subject into politics, calling that risky and foolish. Sikorski also cited General Grynkewich, who in Warsaw confirmed a growing threat of hybrid attacks from Russia but sees no preparations for a Russian invasion, a position the government also communicates.

Attacks Sikorski listed

Sikorski listed incidents in Poland that he said had occurred: Turkish citizens hired to set fire to a station serving Starlink, a murder commissioned by Russian services, an attack on a train on a high embankment that could have ended in tragedy, arson, drone attacks and the explosion of a cruise missile. He said serious sources rank Poland as the top target in Europe for cyberattacks, with power plants, hospitals and water utilities among the targets. He recalled that Russian drones which entered Poland in September 2025 were unarmed, while drones now carry combat payloads. A Ukrainian intelligence report published shortly before his remarks reportedly said Russia was plotting a direct conflict with Poland. Donald Tusk mocked the president on X, writing that Nawrocki sees no rise in the threat and no problem with Braun and his pro-Russian party in Polish politics.