Evening Brief, Wednesday 4 November

Democrats added the Senate to the House after Tuesday's midterm vote, turning a bad night for Donald Trump into a loss of Congress. AP said votes were still being counted, yet the margins were wide enough for Democrats to claim a mandate to pull Washington in another direction from 2027. Republicans lost races they had expected to hold, including Trump-backed Senate candidates in South Carolina and Texas.

The map shifted in places Republicans usually treat as safe. Kansas elected a Democratic senator for the first time since 1932, South Carolina chose pediatrician Annie Andrews for a seat Republicans had held, and Texas sent James Talarico to the Senate after he beat Ken Paxton. Dan Patrick, the Republican lieutenant governor of Texas, accepted the scale of the defeat.

The result gives Democrats committee power, subpoena power and control over legislation for the final two years of Donald Trump's presidency. AP said likely investigative targets include the Trump family's business dealings, the handling of the Jeffrey Epstein investigation and allegations of corporate corruption. European markets read the result as a curb on extreme policy: Madrid rose 2.9%, Milan gained 2.3%, oil fell and the dollar weakened against the euro.

Iran's Revolutionary Guards said four tankers that entered a prohibited zone south of the Strait of Hormuz hit naval mines and were destroyed, with the ships still burning. The force also said it had intercepted two other vessels and shot down another US MQ-9 drone over the strait. The nationality of the tankers has not been disclosed, and the claims have not been independently detailed in the available reports.

Tehran declared Hormuz closed after the United States and Israel began their offensive against Iran in February. It says only routes authorised by its armed forces are safe. Washington rejects the blockade, says its forces control the outer part of the passage and escorts ships to keep Middle Eastern oil moving. Donald Trump told the Financial Times, hours before US polls closed, that he had no immediate plans for new strikes on Iran, although he said the United States could act if needed.

The military pressure runs beside stalled diplomacy. Donald Trump confirmed indirect talks with Iran over enriched uranium, while Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said his government wanted to resolve the crisis through dialogue. Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Americans had voted against war in the midterms and warned Washington against ignoring that message. Deutsche Welle said contacts through mediators continue without concrete signs of progress.

Euro-area inflation rose to 4.0% in October, up from 3.8% in September and the highest reading since September 2023. Eurostat's flash estimate matched economists' forecasts, with energy doing most of the pushing: prices in that category rose 20.8% from a year earlier. Services climbed 3.3%, food, alcohol and tobacco rose 1.6%, and non-energy industrial goods increased 1.2%.

The country split is awkward for the European Central Bank. Lithuania recorded 6.1% inflation and Bulgaria 6.0%, while Italy and Greece both stood at 5.6%. Germany fell to 2.8%, helped by a fuel discount, and only Malta was lower at 2.3%. Core inflation stayed at 2.5%, which gives rate-setters one calmer number, although the headline rate sits twice the ECB's 2% target.

The ECB has paused after raising its benchmark rate in June and September to 2.50%. Markets now fully price a quarter-point rise to 2.75% by February and put the chance of a December move at about 70%. Joachim Nagel, the Bundesbank president, said another increase looked very likely unless the outlook improved.

Growth has held up, with third-quarter GDP rising 0.4%, twice the forecast pace. Eurostat will publish a second estimate in mid-November, and the ECB's next decision comes in early December.

Two pro-Russian groups, Noname057(16) and Z-Pentest Alliance, claimed responsibility for a wave of hacks on supermarket refrigeration systems across Europe. They said they used built-in systems rather than malware, and they published 2,500 lines from a Danfoss database on Telegram, including login data and passwords. The Telegram channels have since been taken offline, so the claims have not been independently verified.

Hackers reportedly switched evaporators in refrigeration units to defrost mode, warming cold rooms and display fridges. Supermarkets in Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Sweden, Finland, Estonia and Ireland were hit on Monday, with Germany, Romania and the United Kingdom added on Tuesday. Adnkronos reported that temperatures reached as high as 50 degrees. Germany counted four affected supermarkets and Romania six, while Belgium reported failures at dozens of stores and opened a federal investigation.

Italy said the impact was strongly limited, affecting only a few commercial units out of thousands nationwide, mostly those with obsolete security and internet-exposed interfaces. In Britain, the National Cyber Security Centre said the meat-processing industry was hit and that teams worked through the night to warn companies at risk. Ryan Dewhurst of Previdian said the timing pointed to coordination.

Christoph Fischer, an IT security expert from Karlsruhe, blamed manufacturers that ship connected control systems with factory settings and standard passwords. European Commission spokesman Thomas Regnier said EU agencies are in contact with national authorities to prepare a coordinated response.

Spain asked the EU Agency for Railways for technical support after the high-speed train collision near Urda in Toledo province, and the European Commission said the agency is already helping. The crash on 28 October killed 69 people after a Renfe train struck the rear of an Iryo train that had stopped following a signalling-system computer failure. Spanish investigators are still examining why the control centre allowed the Renfe train to move while the Iryo train remained stationary.

EU transport commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas called the pair of deadly Spanish high-speed crashes this year very worrying, while stressing that Spain's AITAT investigation remains in charge. He urged faster deployment of ERTMS, the EU's common train command and control system, and argued for stronger powers for the EU Agency for Railways.

The Urda crash follows the Adamuz accident in Córdoba in January, which killed 46 people. Spain's high-speed network stretches 3,993 kilometres, and passenger numbers reached nearly 44.5 million in 2025 after competition opened at the end of 2020. Unions and specialists argue that staffing and maintenance investment have not kept pace with growth. Óscar Puente resigned as transport minister on 3 November and will not stand in the 29 November general election; Carlos Cuerpo has been named as his replacement.

The EU wants ERTMS on the nine core network corridors by 2030. La Vanguardia reported that the Madrid-Seville line is the only stretch of Spain's high-speed network still running on the older LZB communication system, and that its ERTMS level 2 upgrade is not yet operational.

Israel's Central Electoral Commission said its checks found no irregularities or evidence that the 27 October election was compromised or that results were altered. The review covered minutes from 9,069 polling stations, about 75% of ordinary stations, compared with 5,100 after the 2022 election. Parties and lists filed 2,452 review requests covering 1,350 stations, and citizens sent 1,239 complaints about 750 stations.

The finding cuts against claims by Benjamin Netanyahu and his allies that Arab-led parties had stolen the election, possibly with foreign help. Likud said on 28 October that it had submitted hundreds of testimonies and allegations, including claims involving cash envelopes near Raam ballots. The commission and police dismissed those allegations at the time, and Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara has ordered Shin Bet chief David Zini to present any material supporting the fraud claims. The Shin Bet inquiry continues, but the commission said even confirmed suspicions would not affect the vote's overall integrity.

The arithmetic now drives the politics. Likud won 27 seats, Netanyahu's bloc holds 53 and the opposition bloc led by former army chief Gadi Eisenkot holds 48. No bloc reaches the 61 seats needed for a Knesset majority, and Arab-led parties won a record number of seats, leaving them with unusual leverage over the next government.

President Isaac Herzog began consultations with parties on Wednesday and plans to finish them on Thursday evening, 5 November, though he has not ruled out an extension. He has until 11 November to choose the candidate he judges best placed to form a government, with Netanyahu and Eisenkot the main contenders.