Evening Brief, Thursday 29 October

Spanish officials and emergency teams continued identifying the dead after an AVE train operated by Renfe rammed an Iryo train near Urda, in Toledo province, on Wednesday. Both trains had left Madrid for Seville. By Thursday, reports put the number of deaths counted so far at 69, while around 100 people affected by the crash stayed at the Casa de Ejercicios El buen pastor in Toledo, where psychologists worked with volunteers and relatives waited for news.

Fátima Báñez, a former employment and social-security minister under Mariano Rajoy and president of the CEOE Foundation, was on the Iryo service. She was travelling to Seville for an event organised by Andalusian employers. Her death turned a national disaster into a sharper political shock, because she had overseen Spain's 2012 labour reform and remained a familiar figure in business circles.

Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said he had spoken to the only injured Italian, a man hospitalised in Toledo. The man's sister is missing, and Antonio Tajani said two Italian women were still unaccounted for, one Italian-Argentine and one Italian-Venezuelan. María Chivite, president of Navarre's government, attended a minute's silence at Spain's embassy in Buenos Aires and said the Spanish government must clarify what happened.

Christine Lagarde told colleagues that she will step down as president of the European Central Bank on 7 February 2027, about eight months before her term was due to end. The ECB said she first informed the Governing Council and European Council President António Costa, and that the council gave her a long standing ovation. She has led the central bank since November 2019.

The succession now moves into the European Council's machinery under Article 283 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. António Costa said the process of finding a successor begins on 29 October. The timing gives Emmanuel Macron and Friedrich Merz a window to settle the appointment before France's presidential election in April 2027, when Marine Le Pen's camp could complicate the politics of ECB leadership.

Lagarde's announcement landed on the day of an ECB rate decision, with a policy statement scheduled for 14:15 Central European Time and a press conference at 14:45. Inflation has picked up again as the Iran war has pushed up energy prices, and the ECB raised rates in June and September. Market pricing put the chance of unchanged rates at this meeting at 97%, and the chance of a 25-basis-point increase in December 2026 at 82%.

Bond markets moved little at first. Germany's 10-year yield eased slightly to 3.36%, while the spread between French and German 10-year government bonds held at 154 basis points after reaching its highest level since 2011. Analysts expect monetary policy to remain unchanged in the short term.

US officials have told several Middle Eastern countries and regional allies to prepare for possible renewed military action against Iran after the 3 November midterm elections, according to diplomats briefed on the matter. The warnings say Iran may retaliate against those countries, including with strikes on energy facilities and other crucial infrastructure. Donald Trump has not made a final decision, but allies have been urged to take precautions.

JD Vance has also written to Mohsen Rezaei, head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, in an effort to restart negotiations. Qatari mediators passed the letter on 25 October, and reports said it called for direct talks with Iran's nuclear programme on the table from the start. Iran has not commented publicly, but talks could begin as soon as next week in Qatar or Turkey if Tehran accepts.

The Pentagon told Congress that the war had cost American taxpayers at least $47.1bn as of 16 October, up $3.5bn from early September. About $29bn goes to replacing munitions, with defensive missile interceptors among the most depleted stocks. The estimate excludes repairs to damaged bases and fuel costs.

Washington reportedly wants concessions on Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, while Tehran wants the US to lift its naval blockade and release frozen funds first. Since early September, neither side has launched major strikes on land targets, and the conflict has mostly played out at sea around Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz.

Israeli police rejected Likud's claim that Arab parties stole the election held on 27 October. A police source told Hebrew-language outlets that polling day saw very few irregularities affecting the integrity of the vote, even compared with previous elections, and that neither investigative nor intelligence material supported the accusations. A Central Elections Committee official had already dismissed fraud complaints a day earlier.

With 92.7% of votes counted, Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition held 53 seats, Gadi Eisenkot's Change bloc held 48, and Arab parties held 19. A governing majority requires at least 61 seats, so the arithmetic gives the Arab parties unusual weight even as senior figures on both larger blocs resist relying on them. The Central Elections Committee expects official confirmation by 4 November.

The fraud dispute has not vanished. Committee chairman Noam Sohlberg asked Shin Bet chief David Zini to investigate suspected foreign interference after intelligence was described as exceptionally serious. Channel 12 reported that the suspicion concerns large sums moved by Arab-side actors to raise turnout in the Arab community through illegal means. Police said four men had been arrested in southern Israel on suspicion of electoral corruption, and three others were arrested on election morning.

Benjamin Netanyahu wrote that he would not allow a government with the Arab parties. Itamar Ben-Gvir demanded the arrest of the heads of Arab parties and claimed they had received money from Qatar. Qatar denied interfering in the vote, and spokesman Majed Al Ansari said Doha was being dragged into Israel's internal disputes after the election.

A Russian drone hit a railway platform in Dnipro on 29 October, according to Ukrainian authorities. Volodymyr Zelensky said the drone was aimed at a track where a commuter train and a passenger train stood, and Ukraine's railway said a jet-propelled drone struck the platform where the Dnipro-to-Zaporizhzhia train was standing. Local officials said people were waiting there despite a high-risk alert.

The reported toll rose through the day. Early accounts put the number of dead at 13, while later reporting cited local official Serhiy Hanzha with at least 14 dead and at least 14 injured. Zelensky published photos and video showing rescuers carrying injured people from the platform and covered bodies nearby. Mayor Borys Filatov called it a tragedy and said a civilian train had been hit.

Zelensky asked the United States, the European Union and the G7 to impose new and stricter sanctions on Russia. He linked the strike to the easing of sanctions on some Russian oligarchs and parts of the energy sector, arguing that pressure should not be loosened while the war continues. A separate report said the Trump administration and the Kremlin were discussing a possible lifting of US sanctions on the Russian Direct Investment Fund, though the available account gave few details.

Russia's defence ministry said its air defences shot down 1,214 Ukrainian drones overnight across Russian regions. Moscow mayor Sergey Sobyanin said hundreds were intercepted in the capital region between the evening of 28 October and the morning of 29 October. Ukraine said Russia had also fired drones at sites across the country overnight.

Flávio Bolsonaro left Brazil after losing Sunday's presidential runoff to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Argentina's migration authority recorded the senator for Rio de Janeiro crossing into Misiones province at 22:50 on 27 October with three family members, and the group then boarded a private jet that filed a flight plan to Guayaquil. The aircraft landed in Miami on 28 October, where Bolsonaro is staying with his family.

Bolsonaro released a letter on Wednesday portraying himself as a victim of political and judicial persecution. The first version called him the true president-elect and alleged fraud without evidence; about 20 minutes later he changed that phrase to leader of Brazil. He has pointed to a two-hour extension of voting granted shortly before polls closed, saying it allowed Lula to gain more than 10m extra votes. Brazil's electoral court said about 35,000 people voted in the extended window and that it did not change the result.

More than 128m people voted in the runoff, and Lula, who is 81, will take office on 5 January. The Carter Center and the Organization of American States sent observers and reported no irregularities. Bolsonaro's own Liberal Party accepted the result on 26 October, and Bolsonaro did not file the annulment action he had threatened before leaving the country.

Justice Alexandre de Moraes had ordered Bolsonaro's passports surrendered as part of a money-laundering investigation, which the senator denies. The Supreme Court also labelled him a flight risk because of pending corruption investigations, and the private jet he used is itself the subject of a money-laundering inquiry.