Morning Brief, Wednesday 28 October

Israel’s election moved from a turnout story to a governing puzzle after polling stations closed at 22:00 local time. The Central Elections Committee said 5,695,682 people voted, equal to 77.7% of eligible voters, about 7.1 percentage points above the previous election and the strongest turnout since 2001. Long queues forced election officials to issue emergency instructions allowing voters to use expired identity documents if the photograph still identified them, and the committee rejected a Likud request to extend voting nationwide.

Early projections then put Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar bloc ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition, though still short of power. Kan, Channel 12 and Channel 13 projected the Eisenkot bloc at 53, 52 and 53 seats respectively, while all three put the Netanyahu bloc at 50. Europa Press put Yashar at about 52 seats, two ahead of the Netanyahu coalition. Likud was projected at 25 seats, three fewer than Yashar and well below the 32 it holds now.

The practical consequence sits with President Isaac Herzog, because no bloc reaches the 61-seat threshold on the first projections. Gadi Eisenkot said he would move quickly to replace Benjamin Netanyahu’s government and form what he called a government of Zionist mobilisation. The Central Elections Committee has moved to counting and verifying ballots, so the election-night figures may still shift before Isaac Herzog chooses whom to task with forming a government.

Flávio Bolsonaro left Brazil two days after losing the presidential runoff to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, turning a legal order into a diplomatic nuisance. Police annulled his Brazilian and Italian passports after he failed to hand them over by a deadline, then began looking for him. Reports placed him in Florida with his wife and two daughters, where he met his brother Eduardo Bolsonaro and other family members. A State Department spokesperson said the United States would issue visas for Flávio Bolsonaro and his family.

Brazil’s Supreme Court had ordered the Federal Police to investigate alleged foreign financing of his campaign and possible manipulation of social media algorithms to favour his content. ANSA also reported a money-laundering inquiry involving Flávio Bolsonaro and his lawyer Willer Tomaz. The sources report no outcome in any of the inquiries, and they do not say whether the annulled passports will be restored.

Lula called the departure shameful and said Flávio Bolsonaro could have stayed in Brazil to prove the accusations false. Vice President Geraldo Alckmin called the trip incomprehensible, while Sergio Moro, the former Lava Jato judge elected governor of Paraná, defended it by asking what kind of country seizes an opposition candidate’s passport the day after an election. Allies told Folha that the journey began in Puerto Iguazú, Argentina, and Metrópoles reported that they expect Flávio Bolsonaro to explain himself in Washington on 28 October.

Russia and Ukraine began a local ceasefire around Oleshky, a Russian-held town across the Dnipro from Kherson, to let aid reach trapped civilians. The pause started at 3:00 Kyiv time on Tuesday and runs until 22:59 Ukrainian time on Sunday, 1 November. Russia’s Defence Ministry said its forces halted fire in the Kherson sector, while Ukraine’s general staff issued a matching notice for a designated area. Melania Trump said the start had been brought forward by two days and the zone widened to protect aid routes.

Officials on both sides reported no violations by nightfall. Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, said everything was going according to plan, while Ukraine’s human-rights commissioner Dmytro Lubinets said the temporary arrangements were being carried out in full. The White House said Melania Trump began the talks and helped negotiate the terms with Russian and Ukrainian leaders, and the BBC reported that Pope Leo XIV also helped broker the pause.

The deal matters in Oleshky because local officials say about 2,000 people remain there without food, electricity or water, including almost 50 children. A UN human-rights mission said no food supplies had reached the town since 26 May, and residents have lacked electricity, gas and water since the Kakhovka Dam was destroyed in 2023. Doctors, medicines, food and water are due to arrive first, and evacuation corridors are planned for Friday, 30 October, for residents who want to leave.

Serbia’s Student List used its election victory to attack the state broadcaster that covered the campaign. The student-led movement demanded the immediate resignation of the director general of Radio-Television of Serbia, her deputy, news editors-in-chief and every editor of the news programme. It accused RTS of following former president Aleksandar Vučić’s orders and repeating government messages without proper checks. The demand went to the broadcasting regulator REM and the National Assembly.

RTS director Manja Grčić reportedly told unions she would not resign. The pressure is already spreading through Serbia’s public media system: the head of Radio-Television of Vojvodina resigned the day after the vote, while an RTS news bulletin opened with an apology to viewers for one-sided reporting. The Student List also wants parliament to fill vacant seats on the REM council and to install a provisional management team at RTS with representative unions.

The media fight has mixed with street tension. About 30 protesters entered the premises of Informer, a channel seen as backing Aleksandar Vučić, interrupted its broadcast and called for the arrest of editor Dragan Vučićević. Student List leader Ilija Srdanović urged calm and rejected violence. European Council President Antonio Costa congratulated Ilija Srdanović by phone and said Serbia should form a parliament and government quickly through a peaceful transition that respects the vote.

Britain borrowed £4.5bn on the eve of John Healey’s first Budget at an interest rate of 5.036%, the highest five-year borrowing rate since 2008. The auction lands awkwardly for a chancellor who plans to promise breathing space for households and businesses while keeping fiscal rules intact. The Budget is due on Wednesday, 28 October, and it arrives with households still facing high energy costs linked in the sources to the Iran war.

The IMF projects the overall UK budget deficit falling from 6% of GDP in 2024 to 3.8% this year and 1.4% by 2031. That path depends on a larger tax take, with the Office for Budget Responsibility forecasting national taxes at a record 38.5% of GDP by 2030-31. Labour MPs are looking at the bank surcharge, now 3%, and The Independent reports that John Healey is expected to raise it towards 8% at union request.

The Budget is also expected to lift the minimum wage for workers over 21 by 3.9% to about £13.20 an hour, with new rates due by April 2027. Support on energy bills is expected to focus on vulnerable households, and banks may help fund it through a levy or surcharge. John Healey told BBC Newscast that the Budget will include a radical devolution of powers and resources to local leaders.

A court in New Cairo ordered the closure of Mada Masr, one of Egypt’s last independent news sites, and the seizure of its assets. It fined co-founder and editor in chief Lina Attalah 3m Egyptian pounds, about $53,400, for running a website without a licence. Mada Masr said the court imposed the maximum penalty, ordered the confiscation of equipment and devices, and security personnel carried Lina Attalah out of the courtroom before holding her inside the courthouse. The outlet said the fine was paid and Lina Attalah was released at the end of the day.

The case moved quickly. Lina Attalah had been questioned on 21 October about Mada Masr’s licensing efforts, its operations and a recent article on prison protests, then sent to trial the next day. At Tuesday’s hearing the judge rejected defence motions to review the file, submit documents and hear witnesses. After Lina Attalah’s lawyer declined to make a closing argument in protest, the judge appointed an outside lawyer, which she refused. Her lawyers say they will appeal.

Press groups treated the decision as a warning to the rest of Egypt’s media. Reporters Without Borders called for the verdict to be overturned, Amnesty International called it a devastating setback, and 118 organisations and media groups urged the authorities to stop prosecuting Mada Masr and grant it accreditation. Reporters Without Borders ranks Egypt 169th of 180 countries in its press freedom index, and rights groups count about two dozen journalists detained over their work.