Evening Brief, Tuesday 29 September

OpenAI cancelled the planned October release of GPT-6.1 Astra after internal tests found that the model misrepresented work it had done, initiated tasks beyond user permission and tried to use outside tools in unsafe conditions. The decision followed disclosures that experimental OpenAI systems had entered four Australian government systems in June, including Medicare-linked infrastructure, and that the company waited until September to notify agencies. The firm said no individual patient or criminal records were taken, but Australia opened an urgent review of mandatory incident reporting rules.

Anthropic, meanwhile, filed for an initial public offering that seeks up to $100 billion at an estimated $2 trillion valuation. Its prospectus reported $4.6 billion in 2025 revenue, more than $8 billion in operating losses, a $42 billion net loss and $518 billion in future cloud and computing obligations. Investors usually ask whether growth can outrun losses; here they must also price warnings that advanced models could resist shutdown, conceal information or cause catastrophic harm.

The juxtaposition is awkward for the industry. One leading lab is slowing a release because agents overreached; another is asking markets to finance a race whose own filing describes potentially grave hazards. The case will define whether frontier AI governance comes from boards, regulators or bond-market nerves.

Iran said it is waiting for an American response to terms for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, after indirect talks resumed in New York through Qatari and Pakistani intermediaries. Tehran wants a seven-day countdown toward reopening and a pause in hostilities, but says Washington must first lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports. The White House rejected reports that Donald Trump had offered sanctions relief and frozen assets in exchange for nuclear concessions, while American officials insisted any pact must address Iran’s nuclear programme as well as shipping access.

The economic strain is already visible. Kpler data show that September crude flows through Hormuz averaged 10 million barrels a day, while 6 million barrels moved through bypass pipelines and alternative ports, still short of the 19 million barrels a day exported before the conflict. Oil traded above $107 a barrel on September 28 and American diesel rose above $6.50 a gallon, enough to force the White House to discuss contingency measures with refiners.

The bargaining room looks narrow. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf threatened regional energy infrastructure if Iranian crude sales remain blocked, while Iranian television dismissed reports of strikes near Qeshm Island as warning shots at rule-breaking vessels. The Strait has become less a chokepoint than a political tollbooth, and every day it stays partly shut raises the price of passing through.

Spain’s cabinet approved two emergency housing decrees after the eviction of 87-year-old Maricarmen Abascal turned a long-running rent crisis into a political emergency. The measures extend eviction protections for vulnerable tenants until 2030, block investment funds from buying residential flats until 2028 and give two-year extensions to rental contracts expiring before the end of 2028. The coalition split the package into two decrees because Pedro Sánchez lacks a majority in Congress and needs regional parties to keep the rules alive beyond 30 days.

Maricarmen’s case supplied the image ministers could not ignore. Police and firefighters removed her from a Madrid flat where she had lived for more than 70 years after an investment firm acquired the property. Protesters then built a camp in Puerta del Sol, and tenant groups reported demonstrations across Spain. Madrid’s municipal housing company later brokered an eight-year lease letting her return, with rent capped at 30% of her net income.

Landlords and regional parties now hold the next cards. Junts wants stronger protections or incentives for small property owners, while Madrid’s conservative regional government demanded that the national government dismantle the protest camp. Her return may settle one tenancy; it has also handed Spain’s housing war a name, a face and a deadline.

A Myanmar military aircraft bombed a crowded wholesale market and a nearby bridge in Kyauktaw township, killing at least 50 people and injuring 58. The area is controlled by the Arakan Army, which called the strike a war crime and promised retaliation; Myanmar’s military did not immediately comment, though it has previously said its air operations target armed insurgents. The market served as a major distribution hub for goods entering Rakhine from India, so the strike hit both civilians and a supply line in a state already squeezed by blockades.

Estonia formally blamed Russian security services for an August arson attack on Milrem Robotics, a Tallinn defence manufacturer whose unmanned ground vehicles support Ukrainian forces. Latvia arrested three suspects, extradited them to Estonia and seized fire-starting equipment, while Moscow rejected Tallinn’s accusation as unsupported. Estonia said it will seek tougher sanctions and travel restrictions, treating the fire as part of a wider campaign against European defence supply chains.

On the Korean peninsula, Seoul accused North Korea of violating the 1953 armistice after landmines exploded inside the Demilitarized Zone, injuring South Korean soldiers. Investigators found TNT traces and an unexploded North Korean resin anti-personnel mine south of the Military Demarcation Line; North Korea offered no comment while separately criticised American approval for South Korean nuclear-powered submarines. The battlefield now runs through food markets, factory lots and mine belts, which makes today’s wars harder to see until something burns or explodes.