Morning Brief, Tuesday 23 June

Keir Starmer resigned outside 10 Downing Street, ending a premiership that began with a landslide in July 2024 and quickly ran into stagnant living standards, rising debt and a party asking whether he could fight the next election. He becomes Britain's sixth prime minister to quit in a decade, a grim roll-call for a country that once sold political steadiness as part of its national brand.

Andy Burnham moved fast. The former Greater Manchester mayor won a by-election in Makerfield last week, entered Parliament on Monday and confirmed he would stand for the Labour leadership. Wes Streeting withdrew and endorsed him, making a contest less likely and a coronation more plausible. Starmer will remain as caretaker while Labour opens nominations on July 9, with a successor expected by September if members must vote.

Nigel Farage demanded an early general election, arguing that a new Labour leader would lack a personal mandate to govern. Burnham dodged the question, which is politically wise and democratically awkward. Britain has now trained voters to expect prime ministers to change between elections, but not to trust that the change will improve their lives. Her Majesty's revolving door has become Westminster's most reliable public service.

US and Iranian negotiators left Switzerland with a 60-day roadmap for a final peace deal, after overnight talks at the Bürgenstock resort produced working groups on nuclear issues, sanctions, monitoring and dispute settlement. Vice President JD Vance led the American delegation, while Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Abbas Araghchi represented Iran, with Qatar and Pakistan mediating.

The inspection file already looks messy. JD Vance said Iran had agreed to invite International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors back, calling it a major step toward ending the nuclear dispute. Iran's foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei denied any new pledge, and Abbas Araghchi did not confirm the American account. The difference may sound procedural, but inspectors are the practical test of whether a truce becomes verifiable policy rather than press-conference mist.

Donald Trump complicated the diplomatic mood by berating European NATO allies for not helping in the Iran war, naming Italy, Germany and the United Kingdom and hinting that America could withhold support in return. Giorgia Meloni tried to cool a separate row with Washington, while NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte prepared to visit the White House.

The talks give diplomats a calendar, but Donald Trump's alliance threats give everyone else a reason to doubt the warranty.

France moved into emergency mode after three elderly people died in Gironde and 49 departments went under the highest heat alert. Education officials said 845 schools would close and 1,800 more would adjust hours, while Météo-France warned that temperatures could approach 43°C from Monday to Wednesday. Italy escalated its own red-alert list from 12 cities on Monday to a forecast 16 by Wednesday.

Germany prepared for temperatures near or above 40°C, with the Rhine region under extreme-heat warning and Berlin possibly reaching the same level by the weekend. Spain placed 14 regions under warnings, with the Basque Country on red alert and forecasts of 40°C to 42°C in several river valleys.

Hospitals are already absorbing the load. Fabio De Iaco, a former leader of Italy's emergency-medicine society, estimated a 10% to 15% rise in emergency visits in large cities. French authorities also reported more firefighter callouts during the Fête de la Musique, while local bans on sports and public-road alcohol tried to reduce avoidable strain.

The heatwave is not just hot weather with better maps; it is a live audit of schools, care homes, hospitals and cities built for cooler summers.

Abelardo De La Espriella claimed Colombia's presidency after the preliminary count gave him 49.7% of votes with 99.9% of polling stations counted. Iván Cepeda, the leftist candidate of the ruling Pacto Histórico, stood at 48.7% and called the tally unofficial, promising challenges in more than 30,000 voting stations. Electoral authorities have not declared a formal winner, and Colombia has never overturned a presidential result through a recount.

De La Espriella campaigned as a hardline outsider, promising to end Gustavo Petro's peace talks with armed groups, build mega-prisons and restart oil exploration, including fracking. His victory speech mixed unity talk with feline menace, fitting for a candidate nicknamed El Tigre. Donald Trump congratulated him and welcomed a leader expected to align Bogotá more closely with Washington, Israel and Latin America's rightward bloc.

The regional signal is larger than the margin. Colombia now appears set to join Argentina, Chile, Ecuador, Bolivia, Panama and perhaps Peru in a conservative turn, reversing much of the early-2020s leftward wave. Energy policy could also shift quickly, because De La Espriella wants more oil output at a moment when Middle East supply shocks have made every extra barrel politically louder.

A one-point lead can change a government, but a disputed one can also drain its authority before the new president unlocks the office door.

The Democratic Republic of Congo's Ebola outbreak passed 1,000 confirmed cases barely a month after officials declared it. The health ministry counted 1,003 cases and 254 deaths, a fatality rate of 25.3%, with 365 patients in treatment and 100 recoveries. The numbers rose from 933 on Friday to 956 on Saturday and crossed the 1,000 mark by Sunday.

This outbreak involves the Bundibugyo strain, a rarer form of Ebola with no approved vaccine or specific therapy. That makes containment depend heavily on old-fashioned public-health work: isolate cases, trace contacts, monitor symptoms and earn enough trust for people to report illness early. Authorities have reached only 55% to 60% of contacts, far below the 90% level the World Health Organization says is needed, and more than 35,000 contacts still need to be identified.

Conflict makes that job harder. The affected eastern provinces of Ituri, North Kivu and South Kivu hold roughly 15m people and include areas controlled or threatened by armed groups, including M23. The virus has crossed into Uganda, where the WHO recorded 20 cases and two deaths. Treatment centres are already at 80% capacity, while millions of displaced people live in crowded camps with poor sanitation.

The outbreak's danger lies less in today's case total than in the gap between the virus's speed and the state's reach.

Qatar's Barzan gas plant suffered a deadly explosion during a restart after months of maintenance, killing 13 workers and injuring 66. Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi said the dead were Indian and Pakistani nationals, and he insisted the blast was an accident rather than sabotage or hostile action. QatarEnergy said LNG production, Ras Laffan port operations and exports were unaffected.

The accident landed in a nervous market. Ras Laffan is central to Qatar's gas system, and earlier Iranian strikes during the war damaged export infrastructure and helped trap LNG supply inside the Gulf when the Strait of Hormuz closed. Saad al-Kaabi stressed that Barzan supplies local power, desalination and industry, not the main LNG export trains, but the timing reminds buyers that restarting energy systems after conflict carries its own risks.

China applied pressure from a different corner of the resource map, adding 10 American firms to its export-control list and separately barring procurement from 46 US defence companies. The rare-earth targets include MP Materials and USA Rare Earth, two firms central to Washington's attempt to build supply chains outside China. Beijing still dominates light rare earths and controls more than 98% of heavy rare-earth refining.

Energy and minerals are different markets, yet both stories point to the same vulnerability: modern economies run on supply chains that look efficient until politics, war or a failed restart pulls one bolt loose.