World·since 26 May·1,142 entries
The US under Trump: second term
US foreign policy under the Trump administration is shifting from multilateralism toward transactional bilateral bargaining, linking security commitments, economic access and territorial claims to bilateral concessions across theatres.
AI text how it is made
This week20 entries
State of playtoday 09:00
Ukraine and Russia
Trump's "energy ceasefire" of 11 October collapsed within days, and the New York Times reports a Russian plan for a month of strikes to cut Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa off from electricity, water and heating. Zelenskyy accuses Trump of pushing Ukraine to capitulate and offers to halt refinery strikes in exchange for Patriot missiles.
Envoy Steve Witkoff landed in St Petersburg on 21 October, a day after Oslo talks with Zelenskyy, to put revised proposals to Putin. Trump's 16 October order waived the 500% duty on Russian goods, and Rubio says the sanctions review could take up to 60 days.
Allies and Trade
Politico Europe reports Brussels is asking Canada and the UK to help finance Kyiv, with a package reportedly worth €70 billion under discussion. Trump warned on 20 October that the US could leave Europe unless it tightens migration policy. The Court of International Trade has ruled the 10% global tariffs unlawful, leaving them in force pending appeal. Trump says an India trade deal is "pretty close".
Domestic Pressure
Trump's approval is 32% in Reuters/Ipsos polling ahead of the 3 November midterms, and the State Department says it has revoked over 300,000 visas. The test is whether Congress challenges the Russia waiver before Rubio's 60-day window closes.
What comes next
- todayWitkoff meets Putin in St Petersburg with revised peace proposals
- in 6 daysIsrael holds election; Trump has endorsed Netanyahu
- in 13 daysUS midterm elections for House and Senate
Open questions
- Will the US go ahead with raising car tariffs on EU vehicles from 15% to 25%, and how will the Commission respond?
- Will Washington actually suspend NATO's PURL programme or intelligence sharing to press Kyiv over refinery strikes?
Who is who8
Donald Trump US President
Warned on 20 October the US could leave Europe unless it tightens migration policy, says he asked Putin to free Stephen Hubbard, and faces a Court of International Trade ruling that his 10% global tariffs are unlawful pending appeal.
21 Oct
Volodymyr Zelenskyy Ukrainian President
Accuses Trump of pushing Ukraine to capitulate and offers to halt refinery strikes in exchange for Patriot missiles.
18 Oct
US special envoys US negotiators on Russia and Ukraine
Witkoff landed in St Petersburg on 21 October to put revised peace proposals to Putin after Oslo talks with Zelenskyy.
21 Oct
EU leaders European Council members
Rejected the US asset proposal and any lifting of sanctions while the war continues, and are discussing a €90 billion loan for Kyiv.
18 Oct
Andrej Babiš Czech prime minister
Accused Trump of betrayal over the Russian diesel deal.
16 Oct
Marco Rubio US Secretary of State
Says the decision on imposing the suspended Russia sanctions could take up to 60 days, keeping them as leverage.
19 Oct
Vladimir Putin Russian President
Receiving Witkoff on 21 October, and asked by Trump to release jailed American Stephen Hubbard.
21 Oct
Chinese commerce ministry Chinese government ministry
Says the DHS order to remove DeepSeek harms Chinese firms and violates understandings between Xi and Trump.
20 Oct
Numbers
Trump approval rating (BBC) (%)
37→37 %
12/10 → 13/10 · pollar.news
US visas revoked since January 2025 (State Department)
175,000→300,000 visas
10/08 → 20/10 · pollar.news
Promises5
Donald Trumpopen
Trump will consider letting Ukrainians keep Temporary Protected Status until the war ends.
19 Oct · reuters.com
Marco Rubioopen
The administration will decide within 60 days whether to impose the suspended Russia sanctions and tariffs.
18 Oct · due 17 Dec · reuters.com
Donald Trumpopen
Oil, gas and mineral exploration in Greenland will start soon.
14 Oct · soon, no timeline given · pollar.news
Donald Trumpopen
Taiwan will buy 30% of the planned Alaska LNG pipeline gas for 20 years and invest $4.4 billion.
14 Oct · pollar.news
Donald Trumpopen
Russia will supply 4.8 million tonnes of diesel under the arrangement announced after the Putin call.
10 Oct · pollar.news
Chronicle1,142 entries since 26 May
19–25 October7 entries
Steve Witkoff arrived in St Petersburg on the morning of 21 October, a day after talks with Volodymyr Zelensky in Oslo, and is due to present revised peace proposals to Vladimir Putin.
The US Court of International Trade ruled the new 10% global tariffs unlawful but left them in force for most importers while an appeal proceeds.
At a 20 October rally Trump said the United States could leave Europe if it does not find the right way quickly, faulting European countries for not helping in the Iran war and urging them to close borders. No formal withdrawal was announced.
Gellert Global Group, a New Jersey food importer, filed suit on 20 October arguing Trump exceeded his authority by invoking Section 338 of the 1930 Tariff Act on about $20 billion of Canadian imports. The case follows the Supreme Court's February ruling against most earlier tariffs.
Trump said on 20 October he had asked Vladimir Putin to free Stephen Hubbard, a 74-year-old retired teacher held in Russia since 2022. Envoy Steve Witkoff is due to meet Putin in St. Petersburg on 21 October.
The Department of Homeland Security ordered civilian federal agencies to remove DeepSeek products and services built on the model and barred new acquisitions. China's commerce ministry said the measure harms Chinese firms, and Beijing said it violated understandings between Xi Jinping and Trump.
The Department of Homeland Security said on 19 October that immigrants from Ukraine and Sudan can keep Temporary Protected Status for now, despite the scheduled expiry that day. Further announcements are to follow. Trump said he would consider letting Ukrainians stay until the war ends.
12–18 October23 entries
Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Trump is pushing Ukraine to capitulate to Russia, and offered to halt strikes on Russian refineries in exchange for Patriot missiles, answering the reported US threat to withdraw arms and intelligence.
Trump called Benjamin Netanyahu a great warrior prime minister in a Truth Social post on 18 October and urged Israelis to keep him in office, nine days before the vote, as polls show a tight race.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on 18 October that the administration could take up to 60 days to decide whether to impose the suspended Russia sanctions and tariffs, using the period to assess their economic impact and keeping them as leverage.
Trump suspended many Russia-related sanctions and tariffs mandated by a law signed the previous month, Reuters reported on 16 October. His administration cited the aim of lowering US diesel prices ahead of the midterm elections.
European leaders turned down a reported US proposal to release billions of euros in frozen Russian assets, while Czech prime minister Andrej Babiš accused Trump of betrayal over a Russian diesel deal, deepening the Trump-Zelensky rift.
At the Brussels summit on 16 October, Zelenskyy pressed EU leaders for winter support after Trump moved to lift sanctions on Russian oil exports. The leaders said they will not lift sanctions while the war continues.
The New York Times reported a Russian plan for a month of missile and drone strikes to cut Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa off from electricity, water and heating, citing depleted Ukrainian air defences as the central weakness.
Trump told Newsmax on 15 October that negotiating with Volodymyr Zelensky is harder than with Vladimir Putin, after the energy truce he announced between Russia and Ukraine fell apart within days.
A donor list obtained by the Washington Post shows $333 million in private donations for Trump's ballroom, including at least $77 million from anonymous donors. Apple and Nvidia each gave $25 million. Trump's own name does not appear on the list.
The Government Security Centre sent an alert on 15 October to residents of many powiats in Lublin Voivodeship, saying Polish aircraft were operating in national airspace as Russia attacked Ukraine from the air.
Ukrainian officials left talks in Miami on 15 October after being told US arms purchases and satellite intelligence could be withdrawn unless Ukraine immediately halts attacks on Russian refineries, Le Monde reported.
The Financial Times reported on 15 October that US special envoys asked European countries to unfreeze Russian assets and transfer them to a Washington-overseen vehicle to restart talks with Moscow. European participants reportedly rejected US control and any return of funds to Russia.
Five senior House Republicans told Politico the party has all but lost the House, while a Reuters/Ipsos poll put Trump's approval at 32%. The midterm elections are on 3 November, and a Democratic House would constrain the administration's foreign policy funding and oversight.
Denmark's foreign ministry said on 14 October that any US exploration of Greenland's oil, gas and minerals must take place within the island's legal framework. The statement answered Trump's claim of "massive" exploration and followed a Denmark-Greenland-US agreement on bases and missile defence.
Trump said on 14 October that oil, gas and mineral work in Greenland is about to start, naming no projects, timelines or companies. The claim follows the defence agreement between the United States, Denmark and Greenland signed on 22 September.
Trump told a Wasilla, Alaska, rally that Taiwan will take 30% of the planned pipeline's gas for two decades and invest $4.4 billion. Taipei had not commented, and Seoul said its own share of the project is not yet finally approved.
The Washington Post reports US and European governments are drafting a joint proposal offering economic benefits and security guarantees to both Ukraine and Russia. It would also press both sides toward territorial concessions that neither currently accepts.
Americans vote on 3 November, with Republicans holding a thin House majority and Trump's approval at about 37%, per the BBC. Democrats need a net gain of four House seats and must hold or flip Senate seats in Georgia and Michigan.
Trump said late on 12 October that Beijing and Moscow have too much to lose to help Tehran and would be found out quickly. The post came as criticism mounted over his diesel agreement with Russia.
Matthew Whitaker, Trump's NATO envoy, said Washington is reviewing its global commitments and considering moving military assets from western to eastern Europe. No relocation or withdrawal was announced. He also criticised allies below 2% defence spending, including Czechia.
The Trump administration contacted Kyiv and European capitals about potentially suspending NATO's PURL programme, which coordinates allied funding for US weapons for Ukraine, to pressure Ukraine over strikes on Russian refineries, the Financial Times reported, as republished by Deutsche Welle on 12 October.
Gen. Ireneusz Nowak, Poland's operational commander, said on 12 October that US deliveries of Patriot PAC-3 MSE interceptors will be late. The Baltic states face the same delays, and HIMARS contracts are also uncertain, which affects eastern-flank air defence planning.
Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, NATO's top military commander, outlined the alliance's new military plan in Warsaw on 12 October, designed to block and blunt a potential Russian attack on Europe.
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