World·since 26 May·1,221 entries
The war in Ukraine and its limits
Ukraine and Russia keep striking each other's energy and industrial sites while Trump's announced energy ceasefire has no agreed terms. A US-brokered local pause around occupied Oleshky, in force since 27 October, is the only agreed truce, and Putin told Finland and Norway Russia will not drop its aim of taking all of Donbas.
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This week25 entries
State of playtoday 19:07
Energy Truce Unimplemented
Trump announced an energy ceasefire on 11 October with no published scope, monitoring or start date. On 26 October Russia said it hit power stations in Kharkiv and Khmelnytskyy, and Ukraine reported outages in six regions.
Zelenskyy said Kyiv will stop hitting Russian refineries only if Moscow stops striking Ukrainian energy. Reuters, citing industry sources, says Russian refineries raised crude processing about 25% in the second half of October to roughly 5 million barrels per day as drone attacks subsided.
Oleshky Pause and Diplomacy
The Oleshky pause took effect at 3 a.m. on 27 October for aid and evacuations. Melania Trump said it now covers a wider area of Kherson region for humanitarian convoys. Both sides say it is local only, and Russia hit Kyiv the same day, including the South Bridge.
Putin told Stubb and Støre Russia will pursue Donetsk and Luhansk. Merz said any settlement must include Kyiv and Europe. Trilateral talks are expected in the first half of November, and the test is whether aid reaches Oleshky.
What comes next
- tomorrowEU presents review of its enlargement policy
- in 5 daysAt least 1,500 UK, French and German troops due in Poland to rehearse supplying a European force
- in 8 daysTrilateral talks could resume, per Moscow
- in 48 daysG20 summit in Miami begins (14-15 December), Putin invited
Open questions
- Will Russia and Ukraine agree real terms to halt attacks on energy facilities after the collapse of the announced truce?
- How will the roughly $32.6 billion gap in Ukraine's 2027 external funding be covered beyond the €90 billion loan?
Who is who8
Volodymyr Zelenskyy President of Ukraine
Rejects Musk's claim that Ukraine's army used Starlink for offensive strikes, says Patriot stocks are nearly exhausted and ties a halt to refinery strikes to Russia stopping attacks on Ukrainian energy.
27 Oct
Donald Trump US President
Announced an energy ceasefire on 11 October that lacks agreed terms, and his administration brokered the local Oleshky pause that began on 27 October.
27 Oct
Steve Witkoff US special envoy
Met Putin in St Petersburg on 21 October to press for trilateral talks and present new ideas for ending the war.
24 Oct
Vladimir Putin Russian President
Told Finland and Norway on 27 October that Russia will not accept compromises against its interests and will keep seeking control of Donetsk and Luhansk, while accepting renewed trilateral talks in principle.
27 Oct
Russian government Party to the war
Hit Kyiv on 27 October with 16 ballistic missiles and over 280 drones, per Ukrainian officials, and says local pauses will not constrain its offensive.
27 Oct
Dmitry Peskov Kremlin spokesman
Said on 23 October the first diesel tanker under the US arrangement has sailed, with regular deliveries to follow.
25 Oct
Elon Musk Starlink owner
Says Ukraine's army used Starlink for offensive drone strikes, a breach he says has since been closed; Kyiv rejects the claim.
27 Oct
Matteo Salvini Lega leader and Italian deputy premier
Re-elected Lega leader on 25 October, he urges Italy to stop sending money and weapons to Kyiv, while Tajani says the next package is ready.
26 Oct
Promises8
White Housekept
Russia and Ukraine will observe a local ceasefire in occupied Oleshky for aid and a civilian evacuation corridor.
23 Oct · due 29 Oct · reuters.com
Volodymyr Zelenskyyunclear
Zelenskyy will organise elections during a 60-day ceasefire.
11 Oct · rferl.org
Volodymyr Zelenskyybroken
Ukraine will stop strikes on Russian refineries if Moscow ends attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, with real guarantees.
11 Oct · rferl.org
Vladimir Putinopen
Putin will resume trilateral negotiations with Ukraine and the United States.
21 Oct · possibly from 4 November, per Kremlin aide Ushakov · apnews.com
Volodymyr Zelenskyyopen
Ukraine would consider a 30-day halt to refinery strikes if Washington supplies Patriot interceptors.
20 Oct · afp.com
European Councilopen
The Commission will present concrete proposals on Ukraine's additional 2027 financing needs.
16 Oct · report.az
Germanyopen
Germany will continue pursuing sanctions against Russia despite the US temporary suspension of restrictions on Russian diesel.
10 Oct · dw.com
Brian Fitzpatrickopen
Fitzpatrick will introduce a House bill blocking Russian oil purchases.
10 Oct · rferl.org
Chronicle1,221 entries since 26 May
26 October – 1 November6 entries
Poland will host the only PAC-3 Patriot interceptor maintenance centre outside the United States, costing about 1 billion zloty. European armies now send the missiles to the US for checks. The site has not been disclosed.
Overnight on 27 October Russia attacked Kyiv with 16 ballistic missiles and more than 280 drones, Ukrainian officials said, hitting the South Bridge. The attack came as the local Oleshky pause began and talks were being prepared.
In a 27 October call with Finnish President Stubb and Norwegian PM Støre, Putin said Moscow would not accept compromises contrary to Russian interests and would keep seeking control of Donetsk and Luhansk. The two leaders had urged him to end the war.
The local ceasefire around Russian-occupied Oleshky in Kherson region began at 3 a.m. Kyiv time on 27 October, two days before the date the White House announced. It is meant to open access for food and medicine and let residents leave.
apnews.com · clickondetroit.com · economictimes.indiatimes.com
Bloomberg, citing a presentation based on Ukrainian intelligence, reports Russia recruited 699 men from Burundi and 530 from Zimbabwe between January and September 2026, widening its African recruitment for the war in Ukraine.
Lublin's regional assembly voted unanimously on 26 October to end its 2004 cooperation agreement with Lviv oblast, and Przemyśl's city council suspended its partnership the same day. Both responded to Lviv's declaration of 2027 as a year dedicated to the UPA and Roman Shukhevych.
19–25 October23 entries · 1 key
Re-elected Lega leader on 25 October, Matteo Salvini called for Italy to stop sending money and weapons to Kyiv. Deputy premier Antonio Tajani replied that the next Italian military package is already ready, exposing a split inside the governing coalition.
Ukrainian drones struck a rubber plant whose materials feed missile fuel, plus an Ozon warehouse, in Omsk on 24 October. Perm Krai and Belgorod reported casualties the next day, extending the reach of Ukraine's deep-strike campaign.
Elon Musk said on 24 October that the Ukrainian army used Starlink for offensive drone strikes that killed people, a breach he says has since been closed. Kyiv reported its connection was stable again after a week of speed caps.
Ukraine's Defence Ministry said on 24 October that Starlink and Starshield were running above 400 km/h after speed caps that Kyiv linked to strained ties with Washington. Trump said Elon Musk had restored access, a claim Kyiv had disputed earlier in the week.
Fire broke out at the Togliattikauczuk petrochemical complex in Togliatti after an overnight drone attack, Ukrainian media reported on 24 October. Regional authorities had not confirmed a strike on industrial facilities when the reports appeared.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on 23 October the first diesel shipment had sailed, with regular deliveries to follow. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak put the cargo at about 40,000 tonnes, under a temporary US suspension of sanctions on Russian fuel exports.
Russia and Ukraine each handed over 270 prisoners on 23 October, following talks involving US negotiators earlier in the week. The swap is the latest humanitarian result of the diplomatic contacts between Washington, Moscow and Kyiv.
Passengers were moved into shelters, and some taken off aircraft, at Sheremetyevo on 23 October as drone alarms disrupted flights across Moscow. Russia's civil aviation agency also restricted operations at the capital's other airports.
A US draft plan for Ukraine would create a demilitarized zone in Donbas, bar Ukraine from NATO and reopen a path for Russian gas to Europe, the Economist reports. A Russian diesel tanker is also heading for New York.
The White House said on 23 October that Russia and Ukraine agreed a local ceasefire in Russian-occupied Oleshky, starting 29 October, to allow humanitarian aid and a civilian evacuation corridor. Neither Moscow nor Kyiv had publicly commented at the time of reporting.
Ukraine is negotiating with Poland and Slovakia to carry out customs inspections of grain-export lorries on their territory rather than at the border, the Financial Times reported on 23 October. The aim is to protect queues from Russian drone attacks; Kyiv already runs joint control points with Moldova.
The Financial Times reported on 22 October that Ukraine will purchase military equipment through a NATO procurement agency. The channel opens as Kyiv faces shortages of air-defence ammunition, including Patriot interceptors held up in the United States.
US envoy Steve Witkoff thanked Putin in Saint Petersburg on 21 October for freeing an American, calling him a humanitarian. Republican senators criticised the remarks as talks on Ukraine stall.
Zelenskyy said on 21 October that Ukraine supports freezing fighting along the current front line as a basis for diplomacy, provided any agreement includes security guarantees. The offer came as Witkoff met Putin in St Petersburg and Moscow agreed in principle to resume talks.
Russia's central bank cut gold reserves by about 6.2 tonnes in September alone, the fastest pace since 1998, while the 2026 budget deficit is now projected at 7.3 trillion rubles, twice the original plan.
The Kremlin said on 21 October that Putin agreed to resume trilateral negotiations with Ukraine and the United States after meeting Witkoff. Reports point to possible talks in mid-November, but no timetable is confirmed and AP says the sides remain far apart on terms.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on 21 October that Putin is not considering an energy truce with Ukraine, contradicting the ceasefire framework Trump announced on 11 October. The statement leaves the energy ceasefire without Russian backing as strikes on both sides' energy sites continue.
US envoy Steve Witkoff met Vladimir Putin in St Petersburg on 21 October, pushing to revive trilateral talks and presenting new ideas for ending the war. Putin proposed a meeting with Trump in China; the Kremlin's response to the ideas was not detailed.
Satellite images show a three-armed radar complex under construction near Gvardeysk in the Kaliningrad exclave. Reports put its detection range at 900 to 3,000 km, which would cover Poland, Germany, France and Britain.
The Lviv Regional Council declared 2027 a year dedicated to the UPA, Roman Shukhevych and Oleh Olzhych on 20 October. Poland's Institute of National Remembrance and Deputy Prime Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz sharply criticised the decision.
Zelenskyy met US envoys Witkoff and Rubio in Norway on 20 October, saying Ukraine is close to exhausting Patriot interceptors and that European-funded missiles await US approval. He offered a 30-day halt to refinery strikes in exchange for Patriot supplies.
Trump said on 19 October that Ukraine needs a different negotiator and that he could meet Russian and Chinese leaders on denuclearization. Zelenskyy replied that a presidential election requires a 60-day total ceasefire first.
Russia struck Kyiv overnight on 19 October with ballistic and cruise missiles and 269 drones, killing one woman and injuring three. A metro station, a medical facility and a 25-storey residential block were damaged, the mayor said.
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