World·since 26 May·1,131 entries
The Middle East after Gaza
The Gaza war triggered a realignment of Middle Eastern power and a direct US-Iran military conflict, shifting influence toward Gulf states and Iran-aligned actors while forcing regional and European powers to negotiate security for critical maritime chokepoints under wartime conditions.
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This week12 entries
State of playtoday 06:23
US-Iran Track
Iran has sent a nuclear proposal to Washington through Qatar but says talks begin only after the US lifts sanctions, releases frozen assets and meets five other demands. Washington wants nuclear issues first. Qatar is also exploring a two-day sequence: the US lifts its blockade and frees some funds, Iran admits IAEA inspectors, then Hormuz reopens and enrichment talks start.
Trump said on 6 November he might have to "destroy the rest of the country" without an acceptable deal, while earlier saying no strikes are immediately planned. Araghchi spoke with Saudi, Qatari, Turkish, Emirati, Omani and Egyptian counterparts on 5 November. No agreement has been reported.
Hormuz and Gulf Security
Flows through Hormuz remain below 60% of capacity, and Reuters says Iran is unlikely to give up control without a broader settlement. Oil is heading for its sharpest weekly fall on de-escalation hopes. Revolutionary Guards claims of mine strikes and a downed US drone are unverified.
The Houthis claim attacks on Saudi airports, unconfirmed by Riyadh, and Washington has told Gulf states to prepare for a short campaign. Pollar also reports strain in Israel over US aid, which Trump says ends at year-end.
Next test: whether Washington answers Iran's demands via Qatar.
What comes next
Open questions
- Will the Saudi-led offensive secure the Bab el-Mandeb coast without Houthi attacks on Saudi energy sites?
- Will Washington accept Tehran's demand to lift the port blockade and ease sanctions before nuclear issues are addressed?
Who is who8
Abbas Araqchi Iranian foreign minister
Says a proposal under discussion could reopen Hormuz within two days if Tehran's conditions are met, and wants the blockade, sanctions and frozen funds addressed first.
2 Nov
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Iranian military force
Says mines destroyed four tankers, two more vessels were stopped and a US MQ-9 was shot down; the claims are unverified.
5 Nov
Donald Trump US President
Says there is no immediate plan for more strikes on Iran, calls the war worth its midterm cost, and says US military aid to Israel ends at year-end.
6 Nov
JD Vance US Vice President
Says the Iran war was a reason Republicans lost ground in the midterms; the Wall Street Journal reports he opposed the conflict from the start.
5 Nov
Houthis Yemeni armed movement
Claim missile and drone strikes on Riyadh airport and Jazan targets on 4 November; AP could not verify the claims.
5 Nov
Qatar Mediator between US and Iran
Says both sides are reviewing ideas passed through Doha and hopes for an interim agreement, though sequencing divides them.
5 Nov
Gadi Eisenkot Israeli centrist politician
Recommended to President Herzog by the Joint List and Ra'am to form the next government, while Netanyahu loses United Torah Judaism's backing.
6 Nov
Mojtaba Khamenei Iranian supreme leader
Has given the government certain powers to negotiate an end to the war, according to Pezeshkian.
6 Nov
Numbers
Amsterdam gas price (EUR/MWh) (EUR/MWh)
90→97→100 EUR/MWh
20/10 → 26/10 → 28/10 · pollar.news
Promises8
Iranunclear
Tehran will reply to Qatar's seven-day draft framework by the end of the week.
28 Oct · by end of week of 28 October · reuters.com
Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelattykept
Egypt will provide Saudi Arabia any support it requests against Houthi attacks.
13 Oct · bloomberg.com
Donald Trumpbroken
The US will carry out no new strikes on Iran before the 3 November midterms.
9 Oct · due 3 Nov · pollar.news
Donald Trumpopen
US annual military aid to Israel will end at the end of 2026.
6 Nov · due 31 Dec · pollar.news
Chinaopen
China will send special envoys to Middle Eastern countries to promote dialogue.
27 Oct · bloomberg.com
United Kingdomopen
Britain will deploy RAF fighter jets on defensive air patrols over Saudi Arabia.
20 Oct · ft.com
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corpsopen
The IRGC will extend its maritime enforcement measures to the entire Persian Gulf.
9 Oct · pollar.news
Abbas Araqchiopen
Iran will respond within days to the US proposal under which Hormuz could reopen within seven days.
9 Oct · within days · aljazeera.com
Chronicle1,131 entries since 26 May
2–8 November9 entries · 1 key
Trump said annual US military aid to Israel will end at the end of the year, after Democratic midterm gains and a Vance post questioning unconditional support unsettled Israeli officials and deepened doubts about the alliance.
Vice President J.D. Vance said the Iran war was a reason Republicans lost ground in the midterms, and the Wall Street Journal reported he opposed the conflict from the start. Trump agreed the war hurt his party but said it was worth it.
President Isaac Herzog accepted the certified results of the 27 October election and began consultations on forming a government. Raam, an Arab-led party, said it would recommend Gadi Eisenkot to form the next government.
Yemen's Houthi movement said on 4 November it targeted King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, a radar installation and a command centre in Jazan. AP could not verify the claims, and Saudi authorities issued danger alerts for Riyadh, Jazan and Najran.
Iran's Revolutionary Guards said on 4 November that four oil tankers were destroyed by naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz, two more vessels were stopped and a US MQ-9 drone was shot down. The claims came a day after US strikes near Qeshm Island.
President Trump told the Financial Times on 3 November that the US has no immediate plans to attack Iran again, after US strikes on Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz. Indirect talks with Tehran continue through Qatari mediators.
Saudi Aramco reported adjusted net income of $31.2 billion for July to September, up 9%, on 3 November. Higher oil prices lifted earnings even as Houthi attacks on its facilities and the war involving Iran continued to disrupt the Gulf.
A US official told AP that American forces carried out defensive strikes on Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz on 3 November, with explosions heard on Qeshm Island and near Bandar Lengeh. Oil prices rose, and it is the first reported US strike on Iranian territory during the mediation.
Iranian President Pezeshkian said Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has given the government certain powers to negotiate an end to the war. Qatar and Pakistan are mediating between Tehran and Washington, which has not yet met Iranian officials directly.
26 October – 1 November19 entries · 1 key
Iran's Revolutionary Guards Navy said two oil tankers struck mines on 1 November while using an "unauthorised route" through the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran said it is enforcing control of the passage, adding to the 29 October mine reports.
Israeli strikes killed eight Palestinians, including a child, in Khan Younis and Gaza City on 1 November, according to rescue services and hospitals. The Israeli military said it targeted militants, and Israel says Hamas is rearming while talks on disarmament and withdrawal are stalled.
A Yemeni employee of the UN Human Rights Office died after more than two years in arbitrary Houthi detention, the UN human-rights chief said on 31 October. The UN called for an independent investigation and the release of other detained UN personnel.
Unidentified objects struck the Qatari LNG carrier Al Mayeda in the Persian Gulf, with no injuries reported. Nakilat, the vessel's operator, confirmed the incident while Doha talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz entered a third day.
Yemen's Saudi-backed military said Houthi forces launched ballistic missiles at Aden airport and the presidential palace on 30 October, with no casualties reported. The Saudi-led coalition separately said it intercepted Houthi drones near Mecca and Medina and over the Eastern Region.
Qatari mediators returned to Tehran on 30 October to try to prevent renewed US-Iran hostilities, coordinating with Washington. The US wants nuclear issues first; Iran demands an end to the US port blockade and oil-export sanctions relief before anything else.
The UK Maritime Trade Operations centre reported a ship on fire 9 nautical miles north of Khasab, Oman, while Iran's Revolutionary Guards said three tankers exploded after hitting mines in the Strait of Hormuz, raising the risk to shipping through the chokepoint.
Saudi-led coalition air defences destroyed a Houthi ballistic missile launched towards Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province on 29 October, Reuters reported. The strike attempt targets the region holding the kingdom's main oil infrastructure, as Houthi attacks and coalition retaliation continue.
Yemen's internationally recognized government emptied Aden international airport on 28 October after Houthi rebels ordered everyone to leave. Airport authorities told EFE at least two missiles hit the facility, and flights are being diverted to Djibouti.
Qatar has given Iran a seven-day draft framework to end the war with the US and Israel, Reuters reported on 28 October. It envisages daily confidence-building steps and guarantees by several countries. Tehran is expected to reply by week's end, though an Iranian official denied a new proposal.
The US has told several Gulf countries to prepare for a short, intense campaign against Iran after the 3 November midterms, the Wall Street Journal reported. Gulf states are meanwhile drafting a multi-part deal meant to prevent a return to war.
Exit polls after Israel's vote gave neither Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc nor the opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot the 61 seats needed in the 120-seat Knesset. Arab parties, with an estimated 17 to 18 seats, could decide who forms the government.
An attack caused a fire near Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia's largest oil-export terminal, early on 27 October, Bloomberg reported. The report did not name the attacker or describe the damage. Saudi-led forces separately said they intercepted three ballistic missiles and four drones.
China's Foreign Ministry said on 27 October it will send special envoys to Middle Eastern countries to promote dialogue and prevent renewed fighting over the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. The announcement followed the Tehran talks involving Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan.
The UN Commission of Inquiry published a report on 26 October finding that Israel continued genocidal acts in Gaza after the US-brokered truce, citing heavy munitions, drones, artillery and sniper fire in dense areas. Israel rejected it as a misinformation campaign.
The Amsterdam TTF benchmark rose roughly 3 to 3.5% on 26 October to its highest level since late 2022, as disrupted LNG supply through Hormuz and a rush to refill storage pushed prices up.
Egypt's parliament authorised the armed forces to support Saudi Arabia on 26 October, Reuters reported, after intensified Houthi attacks on Saudi airports, ports and energy sites. The vote could bring Cairo directly into the regional conflict.
Senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan were due to meet Iranian officials in Tehran, Reuters reported on 26 October. Bloomberg said the aim is to defuse tensions and revive US-Iran negotiations, as Washington weighs a deal or renewed strikes.
Netanyahu said Israel has instructed its intelligence services and military to seek the overthrow of Iran's government, La Repubblica reported on 26 October. He also warned Iran could still pose a nuclear threat. No independent confirmation of a formal regime-change operation was provided.
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