World·since 26 May·1,127 entries
The Middle East after Gaza
The Gaza war triggered a realignment of Middle Eastern power and a direct US-Iran military conflict, shifting influence toward Gulf states and Iran-aligned actors while forcing regional and European powers to negotiate security for critical maritime chokepoints under wartime conditions.
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This week13 entries
State of playtoday 09:24
US-Iran Track
Qatari mediators are in Tehran with a draft US-Iran agreement, and Qatar says both sides are reviewing proposals. A senior Iranian official told Reuters on 4 November the two sides are still far from a deal. Talks are stuck on sequencing: Iran wants the US blockade ended, oil sanctions waived and frozen funds released first, while Washington wants nuclear commitments first.
Trump told the Financial Times there is no immediate plan for more strikes after the 3 November US strikes near Qeshm Island. Iran is reportedly exploring whether China could guarantee US compliance with sanctions relief, though neither Beijing nor Moscow has accepted such a role.
Hormuz and Gulf Risk
On 4 November the Revolutionary Guards said four tankers were destroyed by mines on a prohibited route, two more vessels were stopped and a US MQ-9 drone was shot down. These claims are unverified. Tehran says it can reopen Hormuz within two days if its conditions are met. Washington has told Gulf states to prepare for a short campaign after the midterms.
Yemen and Egypt
The Houthis are fighting the Yemeni government, with about 300,000 displaced and a four-year truce ended. Egypt's president Sisi urges dialogue.
Next test: whether Washington answers Iran's Hormuz conditions via Qatar now that the midterms have passed.
What comes next
Open questions
- Will the Saudi-led offensive secure the Bab el-Mandeb coast without Houthi attacks on Saudi energy sites?
- Will Washington accept Tehran's demand to lift the port blockade and ease sanctions before nuclear issues are addressed?
Who is who8
Abbas Araqchi Iranian foreign minister
Says a proposal under discussion could reopen Hormuz within two days if Tehran's conditions are met, and wants the blockade, sanctions and frozen funds addressed first.
2 Nov
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Iranian military force
Says four tankers were destroyed by mines on a prohibited route, two vessels were stopped and a US MQ-9 drone was shot down; the claims are unverified.
4 Nov
Donald Trump US President
Told the Financial Times on 3 November there is no immediate plan for further strikes on Iran, after US strikes near Qeshm, while indirect talks continue.
4 Nov
Houthis Yemeni armed movement
Fired missiles at Aden airport and the presidential palace, the Saudi-Houthi truce has collapsed, and Yemen's foreign minister says they will not agree a deal with the government.
4 Nov
Saudi-led coalition Military force in Yemen
Says it intercepted Houthi drones near Mecca and Medina and a missile aimed at the Eastern Province.
1 Nov
Abdel Fattah al-Sisi Egyptian President
Urged dialogue and warned against escalation, after saying Egypt would defend Saudi Arabia and parliament authorised military support on 26 October.
4 Nov
Qatar Mediator between US and Iran
Mediators are in Tehran with a draft deal, coordinating with Washington, as the sides remain split on sequencing.
4 Nov
Masoud Pezeshkian Iranian President
Says Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei gave the government certain powers to negotiate an end to the war.
2 Nov
Numbers
Amsterdam gas price (EUR/MWh)
90→97→100 EUR/MWh
20/10 → 26/10 → 28/10 · pollar.news
Promises7
Iranunclear
Tehran will reply to Qatar's seven-day draft framework by the end of the week.
28 Oct · by end of week of 28 October · reuters.com
Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelattykept
Egypt will provide Saudi Arabia any support it requests against Houthi attacks.
13 Oct · bloomberg.com
Donald Trumpbroken
The US will carry out no new strikes on Iran before the 3 November midterms.
9 Oct · due 3 Nov · pollar.news
Chinaopen
China will send special envoys to Middle Eastern countries to promote dialogue.
27 Oct · bloomberg.com
United Kingdomopen
Britain will deploy RAF fighter jets on defensive air patrols over Saudi Arabia.
20 Oct · ft.com
Abbas Araqchiopen
Iran will respond within days to the US proposal under which Hormuz could reopen within seven days.
9 Oct · within days · aljazeera.com
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corpsopen
The IRGC will extend its maritime enforcement measures to the entire Persian Gulf.
9 Oct · pollar.news
Chronicle1,127 entries since 26 May
2–8 November5 entries · 1 key
Iran's Revolutionary Guards said on 4 November that four oil tankers were destroyed by naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz, two more vessels were stopped and a US MQ-9 drone was shot down. The claims came a day after US strikes near Qeshm Island.
President Trump told the Financial Times on 3 November that the US has no immediate plans to attack Iran again, after US strikes on Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz. Indirect talks with Tehran continue through Qatari mediators.
Saudi Aramco reported adjusted net income of $31.2 billion for July to September, up 9%, on 3 November. Higher oil prices lifted earnings even as Houthi attacks on its facilities and the war involving Iran continued to disrupt the Gulf.
A US official told AP that American forces carried out defensive strikes on Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz on 3 November, with explosions heard on Qeshm Island and near Bandar Lengeh. Oil prices rose, and it is the first reported US strike on Iranian territory during the mediation.
Iranian President Pezeshkian said Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has given the government certain powers to negotiate an end to the war. Qatar and Pakistan are mediating between Tehran and Washington, which has not yet met Iranian officials directly.
26 October – 1 November19 entries · 1 key
Iran's Revolutionary Guards Navy said two oil tankers struck mines on 1 November while using an "unauthorised route" through the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran said it is enforcing control of the passage, adding to the 29 October mine reports.
Israeli strikes killed eight Palestinians, including a child, in Khan Younis and Gaza City on 1 November, according to rescue services and hospitals. The Israeli military said it targeted militants, and Israel says Hamas is rearming while talks on disarmament and withdrawal are stalled.
A Yemeni employee of the UN Human Rights Office died after more than two years in arbitrary Houthi detention, the UN human-rights chief said on 31 October. The UN called for an independent investigation and the release of other detained UN personnel.
Unidentified objects struck the Qatari LNG carrier Al Mayeda in the Persian Gulf, with no injuries reported. Nakilat, the vessel's operator, confirmed the incident while Doha talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz entered a third day.
Yemen's Saudi-backed military said Houthi forces launched ballistic missiles at Aden airport and the presidential palace on 30 October, with no casualties reported. The Saudi-led coalition separately said it intercepted Houthi drones near Mecca and Medina and over the Eastern Region.
Qatari mediators returned to Tehran on 30 October to try to prevent renewed US-Iran hostilities, coordinating with Washington. The US wants nuclear issues first; Iran demands an end to the US port blockade and oil-export sanctions relief before anything else.
The UK Maritime Trade Operations centre reported a ship on fire 9 nautical miles north of Khasab, Oman, while Iran's Revolutionary Guards said three tankers exploded after hitting mines in the Strait of Hormuz, raising the risk to shipping through the chokepoint.
Saudi-led coalition air defences destroyed a Houthi ballistic missile launched towards Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province on 29 October, Reuters reported. The strike attempt targets the region holding the kingdom's main oil infrastructure, as Houthi attacks and coalition retaliation continue.
Yemen's internationally recognized government emptied Aden international airport on 28 October after Houthi rebels ordered everyone to leave. Airport authorities told EFE at least two missiles hit the facility, and flights are being diverted to Djibouti.
Qatar has given Iran a seven-day draft framework to end the war with the US and Israel, Reuters reported on 28 October. It envisages daily confidence-building steps and guarantees by several countries. Tehran is expected to reply by week's end, though an Iranian official denied a new proposal.
The US has told several Gulf countries to prepare for a short, intense campaign against Iran after the 3 November midterms, the Wall Street Journal reported. Gulf states are meanwhile drafting a multi-part deal meant to prevent a return to war.
Exit polls after Israel's vote gave neither Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc nor the opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot the 61 seats needed in the 120-seat Knesset. Arab parties, with an estimated 17 to 18 seats, could decide who forms the government.
An attack caused a fire near Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia's largest oil-export terminal, early on 27 October, Bloomberg reported. The report did not name the attacker or describe the damage. Saudi-led forces separately said they intercepted three ballistic missiles and four drones.
China's Foreign Ministry said on 27 October it will send special envoys to Middle Eastern countries to promote dialogue and prevent renewed fighting over the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. The announcement followed the Tehran talks involving Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan.
The UN Commission of Inquiry published a report on 26 October finding that Israel continued genocidal acts in Gaza after the US-brokered truce, citing heavy munitions, drones, artillery and sniper fire in dense areas. Israel rejected it as a misinformation campaign.
The Amsterdam TTF benchmark rose roughly 3 to 3.5% on 26 October to its highest level since late 2022, as disrupted LNG supply through Hormuz and a rush to refill storage pushed prices up.
Egypt's parliament authorised the armed forces to support Saudi Arabia on 26 October, Reuters reported, after intensified Houthi attacks on Saudi airports, ports and energy sites. The vote could bring Cairo directly into the regional conflict.
Senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan were due to meet Iranian officials in Tehran, Reuters reported on 26 October. Bloomberg said the aim is to defuse tensions and revive US-Iran negotiations, as Washington weighs a deal or renewed strikes.
Netanyahu said Israel has instructed its intelligence services and military to seek the overthrow of Iran's government, La Repubblica reported on 26 October. He also warned Iran could still pose a nuclear threat. No independent confirmation of a formal regime-change operation was provided.
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