Explainer
Can the world still keep warming below 1.5 degrees?
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The UN's answer is no. The world is already about 1.4 degrees warmer than pre-industrial times, and the UN Environment Programme says keeping warming under 1.5 degrees is no longer possible.
1.4°C
UNEP projects warming of 2.8 degrees this century if nothing changes. Even with every national pledge delivered, it still projects 2.6 degrees, well past the Paris goals.
- Current policies2.8 °C
- All NDCs delivered2.6 °C
The report's lowest overshoot path means cutting emissions 18 percent from 2025 levels by 2030. That path peaks at 1.7 to 1.8 degrees around mid-century, with roughly a 50% chance of returning to 1.5 degrees by 2100.
18%
Guterres put the problem bluntly: The emissions gap is now a leadership gap. The next test is the climate summit in Turkey this November.
“The emissions gap is now a leadership gap.”
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The story
UN report: 2025 emissions at record levels, world on track for 2.6°C by 2100Read the article
Based on reports by
- De StandaardBack to 1.5 degrees warming by 2100? It is possible, but then our emissions must be halved over the next ten years
- ObservadorUN: 1.5 degree global warming limit has already been exceeded
- ANSA.itUN climate report, “record emissions in 2025, towards +2.6°C by end of century”
- AdnkronosUN: “Earth will warm by 2.6°C by the end of the century, emissions are at record levels”
- ANSA.itUN climate report says, “2025 emissions will hit a record high, temperature rise by end of century may reach +2.6°C”
- ANSA.itUN climate report, “record emissions in 2025, towards +2.6°C by end of century”