Zelensky warns a Trump, Putin and Xi summit could redraw spheres of influence

Kyiv warns of a Yalta-style deal

Volodymyr Zelensky warned on 28 October that a possible meeting of the leaders of the United States, Russia and China could lead to a redistribution of spheres of influence among the world's three largest powers. He said he fears a high-level encounter between Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping could turn into a new version of the Yalta Conference. That gathering took place in Crimea in February 1945, when the leaders of the United States, the United Kingdom and the Soviet Union shaped the post-war order, redrew borders and split Europe into two blocs. Yalta is remembered as a symbol of great powers overriding the fate of smaller nations.

Moscow has indicated that a meeting between the three leaders is being arranged on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Shenzhen, in China's Guangdong province, expected in mid-November. Trump has already expressed support for a high-level meeting with his Russian and Chinese counterparts. Zelensky said Russia wants the encounter to take place and urged that Moscow not be handed what he called a new diplomatic advantage.

Russia's demands and Kyiv's priorities

Russia has for several years sought a comprehensive agreement with the United States on Europe's security architecture, most concretely an end to the expansion of the Atlantic Alliance into eastern Europe. Russian forces invaded Ukraine in 2014 and annexed the Crimean Peninsula. Kyiv's main hope from any talks is a ceasefire that would secure maritime grain exports, which Russian attacks in the Black Sea are currently hampering, along with a truce covering attacks on energy plants. Russia has rejected any pause in fighting before a substantive agreement is reached.

Putin's condition: Zelensky comes to Moscow

Yuri Ushakov, an aide to Putin, said the Russian president intends to meet Zelensky only to sign a peace agreement. According to Ushakov, documents would first be drawn up as part of a long-term settlement for Ukraine, and after that the negotiators would present them to the leaders for signature. Ushakov added that Putin had told Finland's president, Alexander Stubb, and Norway's prime minister, Jonas Gahr Støre, that if Zelensky wants direct negotiations he must travel to Moscow, where all conditions, including security, would be provided. Putin raised a Moscow meeting with Trump in a call in August 2025, and Zelensky refused, as Kyiv has consistently rejected requests to travel to Moscow.

Talks in Abu Dhabi and the APEC track

Technical teams from Ukraine, Russia and the United States are set to meet in November in Abu Dhabi, the first step in resuming peace efforts that have been stalled since the start of the year. Zelensky, speaking by videoconference to the Hudson Institute in Washington on Friday, 23 October, said Ukraine was ready to meet on any day but that everything depended on Russia. He had also said a trilateral leaders meeting could follow the Emirati talks. Kyiv wants the Abu Dhabi meeting to take place before the leaders' encounter at APEC in Shenzhen.

Whether a leaders meeting goes ahead therefore depends on the Abu Dhabi talks and on Moscow's answer, which Zelensky said rests with the Russians.